AppHarvest Goes Public in USD 1bn SPAC Listing –
Agtech Outlook – 22 April 2021
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Specialist:
Title:
Moderator: Nyree Hinton (NH), Third Bridge Sector Analyst
Robert Colangelo (RC)
Founding Farmer & CEO at Green Sense Farms Holdings Inc
Agenda:
1. AppHarvest’s (NASDAQ: APPH) business combination with SPAC (special purpose acquisition
company) Novus Capital
2. Agtech overview and competitive landscape
3. M&A opportunities
4. ESG (environmental, social and governance) innovation
Contents
Q: Could you start by defining CEA [controlled-environmental agriculture] and the investment and capital
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allocation interest it has received relative to the wider agtech industry?
Q: Can you break down key innovations in CEA and the industry’s top players?
Q: Could you elaborate on innovation drivers and new opportunities in the CEA market?
Q: What were the key pre-coronavirus trends in CEA, and how have they evolved since March 2020?
Q: Could you share an overview of AppHarvest’s business and the various categories it operates in?
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Q: How did you evaluate AppHarvest’s decision to go public via SPAC in February 2021? How should we assess
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its USD 1bn valuation against a potential net revenue of USD 2.1m-2.6m in Q1 2021?
Q: What do you think differentiates AppHarvest from other CEA companies?
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Q: Could you outline the environmental challenges within agriculture that AppHarvest is hoping to solve? 6
Q: How do the unique controlled indoor farming companies stack up against legacy field farm businesses?
You noted the different margin profile for CEA, with higher upfront costs facilitating lower operating costs. 6
Q: Which crops do you think represent the best opportunities for indoor CEA to utilise?
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Q: Do you anticipate any headwinds to AppHarvest’s portfolio execution, innovation or partnerships? Which
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of those areas could represent the biggest challenge, given its valuation and the new market entrants?
Q: How has CEA broadly evolved over the last five years?
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Q: Can you elaborate on the supply-side constraints limiting farmers’ ability to meet growing food demand? 7
Q: There has been significant investment in CEA over the last five years, as you noted. Do you think investors
are realising a return on invested capital? Are they instead still in a stage of continuing to funnel money and
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hoping for some substantial market-changing innovation down the line?
Q: Which of the structural goals that the CEA industry is targeting do you think is the most important, whether
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in driving lower environmental impact, higher efficiency or resilience?
Q: How would you characterise farmers or start-ups’ adaptability or willingness to continue implementing
new technologies in their respective areas or companies? You referenced investments in software start-ups
where barriers to entry are high, and that they don’t necessarily need to manage it with high labour costs. 8
Q: Would you say the CEA industry is innovating as quickly as it is capable, in physical technology or food
products? With the latter, we’ve noted divergent innovation rates in plant-based meats vs plant-based
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nutritional snacks and dairy products, for example. How quickly are innovations coming to light in CEA?
Q: What are typically the major cost buckets for vertical farms or CEA? How are these being mitigated?
Q: How hard is it for these players to establish new relationships with grocers to get their products sold?
Q: What are your thoughts on AppHarvest starting production with tomatoes?
Q: Which other high-margin crops do you think would be well-suited to AppHarvest’s strategy?
Q: Can you elaborate on AppHarvest’s competitor set of well-established peers and new entrants?
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Q: What is your outlook for potential policy implications with more stringent quality requirements for large
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traditional producers? Could such developments strengthen the opportunity for small-scale CEA farms?
Q: How is the CEA landscape developing in international markets? Is this very much a US trend, or has there
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been an explosion of this farming type in Europe or Asia?
Q: What is your outlook on deal activity and potential M&A – particularly bigger players scooping up start-
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ups and implementing their technology or resources at a far larger scale?
Q: Can you outline the opportunity between the cannabis and vegetable industries? Would you anticipate
some of these farmers with the right resources switching over to just producing cannabis, or are there high
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barriers to entry given the regulatory environment?
Q: What are your best- and worst-case scenarios for AppHarvest and CEA over the next six months?
Q: How do you expect AppHarvest to utilise the USD 400m or USD 500m cash it has raised?
Q: Are there any commonly overlooked aspects of CEA that you think investors should be aware of?
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AppHarvest Goes Public in USD 1bn SPAC Listing –
Agtech Outlook
Transcription begins at 00:00:00 of the recorded material
NH: Welcome to Third Bridge Forum’s Interview entitled AppHarvest Goes Public in USD 1bn SPAC Listing –
Agtech Outlook. I am Nyree Hinton and I will be facilitating today’s Interview with Mr Robert Colangelo,
Founding Farmer and CEO at Green Sense Farms Holding Inc.
Robert, before we get started with today’s Interview, please state I agree or I disagree to the following
statement: You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any
such information, or any other information which is confidential, during this Interview.
RC: I agree.
NH: Could you start with a brief overview of your background and your various roles across the industry?
RC: I have a master’s degree in hydrogeology. Started out at Argonne National Labs doing a wide range of
research. Went into environmental consulting cleaning up hazardous waste sites and groundwater and soil
cleanups. Went off onto my own as an entrepreneur, started several companies, all in the environmental field.
In 2010, started Green Sense Farms LLC. We were the first and largest indoor vertical farm that produced
commercial vegetables in the Chicago land area. In 2018, I founded Green Sense Farms Holdings, which is
focused on doing contract research on different cultivars to grow indoors. Also, we design and build
controlled-environment agriculture facilities which can be either a standalone greenhouse or a standalone
vertical farm, or a combined facility. I also have a radio show called Green Sense which focuses on
sustainability and eco-innovations.
[00:02:53]
Q: Could you start by defining CEA [controlled-environmental agriculture] and the investment and capital
allocation interest it has received relative to the wider agtech industry?
RC: CEA or controlled-environment agriculture is probably one of the hotter investment areas currently. If
you look at Wikipedia, its definition is controlled-environment agriculture is a technology-based approach
toward food production. The aim of CEA is to provide protection and maintain optimal growing conditions
throughout the development of the crop. Production takes place within an enclosed growing structure such as
a greenhouse, a warehouse or a vertical farm. The simple definition in my mind is controlled-environment
agriculture spans the spectrum from a simple hoop house to a complex vertical farm. Basically, what you’re
doing is creating an environment that is perfect for the plant to grow where it’s not impacted by outside
conditions. On the left side, when you’re looking at different types of greenhouses, they have less of a control
on the environment because they still rely on the sunlight and they still rely on the atmosphere when they have
to vent their facilities.
Vertical farms, on the other hand, are on the far right side. They’re totally controlled environments in which
the LED lights provide the light for photosynthesis and the structure is contained so that you can get optimum
growing conditions by achieving the right temperature and relative humidity as well as CO2 enrichment and
controlling the cleanliness of the facility. That gives you an idea of the spectrum, and it’s become very hot for
investors because, especially with COVID, everybody is looking to shorten the tail of the supply chain and grow
locally. With these enclosed facilities, you can grow locally and you could also conserve soil and water, which
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are precious resources as the population continues to grow.
[00:05:27]
Q: Can you break down key innovations in CEA and the industry’s top players?
RC: I’ll break it out. On the greenhouse side, there’s a lot of look at artificial intelligence to identify crop
deficiencies using cameras and AI to spot a problem before it becomes an outbreak in the facility. There’s a lot
of looking at robots for harvesting and moving, conveyance of young plants and finished produce out of the
farms. There is increased interest in climate control software so that you could have optimum growing
conditions at all times. On the vertical farming end, there is a big push for mechanical climate-control systems
that can regulate both temperature and relative humidity. There are many manufacturers looking at the LED
light segment since you don’t have sunlight, so you have to power these facilities with LED lights. Both
greenhouses and vertical farms are very concerned about energy conservation and being able to have less
impact on the environment through their energy use. That gives you a little bit of an idea this is a very broad
spectrum. There are lots of different sub-parts to the marketplace, so as a quick overview, that’s what I would
provide.
On the competitive side, if we look at greenhouses, just at tomatoes, you’ve got companies like Mastronardi or
Sunset Grown Produce, Bright Farms, MightyVine that are really focused on tomato production. On the
lettuce side, you have T&A and Hollandia and Taylor Farms that are focused on lettuce production. On the
vertical farm side, there are many players in the marketplace. Some of the better-capitalised players include
Plenty, Bowery and AeroFarms and they’re larger scale operations. The other ones are much smaller and
regional. That should give you a good overview of the landscape.
[00:07:58]
Q: Could you elaborate on innovation drivers and new opportunities in the CEA market?
RC: The drivers in the market are that this is a very competitive market space. This is a pennies business.
Most people in produce production are large scale and they’re making their dollars on volume. If you’re not a
large-scale producer, either you have to have a niche product or have a special technology that allows you to
grow efficiently and be cost-competitive. Everything in this industry is geared around OPEX and CAPEX, and
the typical rule of thumb in both a greenhouse and a vertical farm is if you spend more on your CAPEX, it
should reduce your OPEX. Either you spend more money upfront and you’ll spend less money on your
operations, or you’re going to spend less money on your upfront build-out and design, and then you’re going to
spend more money on your operations.
[00:09:13]
Q: What were the key pre-coronavirus trends in CEA, and how have they evolved since March 2020?
RC: There has been a lot of fame and spotlight on vertical farms and recently I’ve seen that shift more towards
greenhouses. Vertical farming has been around, on a commercial production basis, maybe 10 or 15 years.
Greenhouses are just shy of 200 years old and they’ve been around a long time, but they’ve never really gotten
the attention that they deserve. You started to see a lot more investment and attention to greenhouses. The
vertical farms are the new kid on the block with the shiny new technology and everybody is attracted to those,
but greenhouses have been around a long time and they’re maturing and getting a lot more sophisticated, so
they’re becoming good vehicles for production. Each one of those vertical farms and greenhouses have their
place in the marketplace. What I noticed, the other trend is that you’ve got a division, either a grower is very
big and is producing large volume, or they’re small and niche and regionally focused. There’s a big push for
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locally grown pesticide-free produce, so that is giving a lot of interest to the vertical farming because you can
build those anywhere. Greenhouses tend to take a lot of space.
The other thing we’ve seen post-COVID is that if you were supplying to the grocery stores, you did extremely
well. If you were providing produce to produce companies or institutional kitchens, your business was in deep
trouble. Because of COVID, everybody was staying home. A lot of the restaurants, the schools, the country
clubs, large institutional corporate kitchens, they just weren’t operational. I think a lot of growers are trying to
look at how to get diversified into their buyer mix.
[00:11:46]
Q: Could you share an overview of AppHarvest’s business and the various categories it operates in?
RC: This is just my opinion. I’ve never visited AppHarvest, but I talk to a lot of people in the industry and read
a lot of its literature. When you look at their website, AppHarvest is an applied technology company building
some of the world’s largest indoor farms in Appalachia. I know them more as a produce company that’s
currently focused on tomato production and marketing and sale of those tomatoes and trying to brand that
image.
[00:12:35]
Q: How did you evaluate AppHarvest’s decision to go public via SPAC in February 2021? How should we
assess its USD 1bn valuation against a potential net revenue of USD 2.1m-2.6m in Q1 2021?
RC: SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, have pros and cons. I would say, vs an IPO, there are
pros and cons. The pro is that it’s much quicker, you can raise capital through a SPAC in 2-3 months, and an
IPO could take as long as 2-3 years. They’re less expensive. The IPO process is very costly. The SPAC is much
less. It provides, I think, great opportunities to large hedge funds and institutional investors because if they get
in on the SPAC early, then they are typically given warrants that allow them to buy additional shares in the
future at a steep discount. I think the cons of a SPAC are that it quickly turns a company, since you could raise
capital very quickly, from a private company to a public company. When you go public, you have to have that
infrastructure in place, more finance and accounting procedures, corporate governance policies, internal
processes and controls and, potentially, you have more complex tax issues. I think there are pros and cons to
that.
I think one of the advantages for AppHarvest is that they don’t show a lot of revenue for their new company, so
I think this could be a great vehicle for them to get capital quickly, but they also now have to generate their
earnings and live up to their projections and financial performance. The valuation, God bless them, if they can
get it. It seems very high for a company with low revenue, but it also speaks to the marketplace. The stock
market is soaring, there’s a lot of interest in agriculture and people see food as a hedge against inflation and
economic uncertainty, so that’s where it is, in my opinion.
[00:15:07]
Q: What do you think differentiates AppHarvest from other CEA companies?
RC: I would say that AppHarvest, and, again, I haven’t worked there or been to their facility, is that they have
a real focus on their employees. I think they started out as a B corporation and they wanted to really put an
emphasis on employees first with the philosophy that if you have good, happy employees, you’re going to have
good, happy customers. They recently purchased in a robotic and AI company, so they’re looking to build that
robotic and AI efficiency into their operations. There are labour issues everywhere, shortages of qualified
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people. The more automated you could be, the more efficient and consistent you can be and, logically, it
should also reduce costs.
[00:16:13]
Q: Could you outline the environmental challenges within agriculture that AppHarvest is hoping to solve?
RC: I’m not sure what AppHarvest is looking to solve, but I can tell you in my opinion where some of the key
challenges are. One is packaging. Everybody is trying to reduce the use of plastic. A lot of produce is packaged
in plastic because it’s cheap and it works, so people are trying to look for alternatives. The four Rs, reduce,
reuse, recycle and rot, compost anything that you can’t do the first three Rs on is something that everybody is
looking at. Energy conservation is probably one of the top ones. Greenhouses and vertical farms use a lot of
water, gas and electricity, so when we build farms, the first thing we look at is how do you conserve those
resources and build your farms efficiently so they use the least amount of utilities? Then, secondly, how do you
get farms off the grid so that we’re not using coal-fired power? I think those are global concerns that everybody
in the greenhouse and the vertical farming or CEA industry is looking at. Then, the last is water. How do you
recycle your water? How do you purify that water so that there are no pathogens or viruses or disease in the
water and that it’s fresh so you can recirculate it? I think those are the general challenges and I assume
AppHarvest is also trying to deal with those.
[00:18:02]
Q: How do the unique controlled indoor farming companies stack up against legacy field farm businesses?
You noted the different margin profile for CEA, with higher upfront costs facilitating lower operating costs.
RC: The first thing you have to look at is your crop, the volume of production, the climate, and then your
budget. Then, you could start looking at the farm. For example, a banana will probably never be grown
indoors, it just doesn’t make sense. It takes too much energy, it’s too big, and it needs special climate control.
Field farms are very competitive on typical commodity crops, soy beans, corn, wheat, even tomatoes and
lettuces. Certain types can be grown well in the field, but they have to be transported and they can’t be grown
year round. The competitive advantage a greenhouse and a vertical farm has is that you can grow these crops
anywhere year round using less soil and less water. It’s not only just the price that you can produce it at, but
it’s the availability, it’s the quality and it’s the ability to be pesticide-free. A lot of farms, it’s difficult to grow
pesticide-free. Even when you’re organic, there are approved pesticides you can use, but when you’re in indoor
controlled environment conditions, whether it’s a greenhouse or a vertical farm, you can control your situation
much better so you don’t use pest. Those, I think, are some of the differences and the competitive advantages
of where you’re going to go. You first have to look at the crop, and so unless we’re speaking specifically about a
crop and then a very specific variety, it’s hard to give an accurate cost analysis.
[00:20:54]
Q: Which crops do you think represent the best opportunities for indoor CEA to utilise?
RC: For greenhouse, is you could grow a much wider variety of crops. They’re really well-suited to grow
tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, a romaine lettuce, some of the herbs. You can grow squash, zucchini, some
melons but, again, it takes a lot of space. A lot of farmers focus on a few crops. They don’t have a wide diversity
crop, it’s a lot easier to manage and control. On vertical farms, they’re really best for propagation, creating
starter plants that can then be shipped to the field to grow to maturity or shipped to a greenhouse to grow to
maturity. They’re also good for lettuces, leafy greens like kale, arugula, Swiss chard. They’re good for herbs,
the basils, a wide variety of basils can be grown, cilantro, parsley, mint, dill, and they’re also good to grow
microgreens.
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[00:22:18]
Q: Do you anticipate any headwinds to AppHarvest’s portfolio execution, innovation or partnerships? Which
of those areas could represent the biggest challenge, given its valuation and the new market entrants?
RC: I think any new start-up, the first issues is branding. This is a very competitive landscape. They did not
invent vegetables. They are a new company with newer technology, but growing is just one part of it. They still
have to market, brand it, and sell it, and so I think that’s the biggest challenge, is how do you disrupt long-
standing players in the marketplace like a Mastronardi Produce or a Mucci, or a Bright or a MightyVine?
That’s number one. Number two is being able to get the right people. There is a shortage of qualified people in
the agricultural industry. A lot of that stems from the (audio cuts out 23.33) industry. They poached a lot of
people, so finding good people at a competitive price is a challenge. Then, like any new business, getting all
your operating procedures down quickly so that you get into production and produce crop consistently year
round and control any pests that may be inside the facility is a challenge. Then, lastly, it’s distribution, sales
and marketing. I think those are the key hurdles and when you have a big facility, you’ve really got to get your
processes down quickly, else you’re going to be making big errors.
[00:24:20]
Q: How has CEA broadly evolved over the last five years?
RC: In my opinion, vertical farms were super-hot five years ago. Everybody saw this as the shiny new
technology and wanted to invest in it, and there are companies like Plenty that raised USD 250m from
SoftBank. There are companies like AeroFarms who raised over USD 100m, and Bowery who was an Alphabet
spin-off that raised about USD 100m. A lot of money was going into this that was very public and vocal and, as
I said earlier, you are starting to see a shift and an additional focus on greenhouses. Even though they’re
mature and they’ve been around awhile, people are starting to see that the more crop it can grow indoors
preserves soil and water. There’s an increased interest in the last couple of years in greenhouses and all the
support technology that goes into operating greenhouses, as well as vertical farms.
[00:25:49]
Q: Can you elaborate on the supply-side constraints limiting farmers’ ability to meet growing food demand?
RC: In the US, I don’t think there’s a supply issue. There always seems to be enough produce out there, and I
also think there’s enough demand out there. When you go into a major market, there are usually produce
companies and produce brokers that you can sell your crop at. The question is, is how do you get the highest
value for it? Crop is perishable, so the closer you go to selling it to the expiration date, the less value it has. The
trick is to have your crop pre-sold at a good price, and I think that’s the challenge in the produce market right
now, is that there’s plenty of produce, a lot of it goes to waste, some of it doesn’t even get harvested because
there’s too much supply. The challenge is finding the right buyer early enough that will pay the highest price.
[00:27:04]
Q: There has been significant investment in CEA over the last five years, as you noted. Do you think investors
are realising a return on invested capital? Are they instead still in a stage of continuing to funnel money and
hoping for some substantial market-changing innovation down the line?
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RC: I think there’s a bit of a culture clash between capital and farming. A lot of capital from the West Coast
and maybe even on the East Coast is used to investing in high-tech ventures where you can have a small group
work on a piece of software for some period of time, and then once they launch that software, it doesn’t take a
lot of labour to generate sales. It can happen very quickly and it can be greater than a linear growth, maybe
logarithmic or exponential. In farming, everything takes a long time and there are a lot of risks. When you’re
outdoor, you have the most risks. In a greenhouse, there’s less risk, and in a vertical farm, there’s even less
risk. I think when you see people investing that used to invest in high-tech look at high-tech agriculture, what
they may not realise is the horizon and the patience you need for this industry. When you’re doing R&D, you
have to have a crop go through its whole cycle. Sometimes, that could take 90 days, 180 days, depending on
the crop, so it takes a long time to test and research things in this industry.
I think a lot of these investments have not panned out because the vertical farming market is still finding its
niche in the marketplace and it’s still perfecting the technology. The greenhouse investments, I think you have
a shorter horizon to profitability because they’re a more mature market, their production is much more
predictable as well as their costs. They have a lot of cost data, so that’s my thoughts on those two entities in the
marketplace.
[00:29:43]
Q: Which of the structural goals that the CEA industry is targeting do you think is the most important,
whether in driving lower environmental impact, higher efficiency or resilience?
RC: I think all three of those are the most important, but from what I see with this being a pennies business,
efficiency is probably number one. People are always striving to look at how to reduce their CAPEX in their
farm design and construction, and then how do they reduce their OPEX so that they can increase their
profitability.
[00:30:29]
Q: How would you characterise farmers or start-ups’ adaptability or willingness to continue implementing
new technologies in their respective areas or companies? You referenced investments in software start-ups
where barriers to entry are high, and that they don’t necessarily need to manage it with high labour costs.
RC: With greenhouses and vertical farms, once you’ve built them, that’s really where your major investment
in technology comes. Once you start operating them, you may make tweaks in your technology to improve
efficiencies, but you’ve made your large capital investment at that time, so the time to put money into a
technology is at the beginning, at that CAPEX phase. Less is put in in the OPEX phase because you’re focused
on operations at that point. One of the challenges in our industry is farmer fatigue. When capital met
agriculture, there’s been a rash of new innovation in the marketplace, but farmers are on a schedule, whether
you’re a field farm, a greenhouse or a vertical farm. You have to move that crop when the plant tells you to
move it, whether it’s from germination to the nursery, to the grow-out, to harvest, you don’t have a lot of time
not to react to those plants.
This has created a time sink for farmers. They get inundated with all these technologies and they don’t have
time to assess them because they’re focused on their crop production. That’s a challenge, and unless you have
a big enough farm to have a chief technology officer who could be dedicated to evaluating technologies that
they can deploy, it creates a challenge in the marketplace. Or unless you have such a wonderful technology
that’s robust, it’s reliable, it’s simple to understand and a farmer can see how it’s going to save them money
and reduce their labour, then you’ll get their attention quickly.
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[00:33:44]
Q: Would you say the CEA industry is innovating as quickly as it is capable, in physical technology or food
products? With the latter, we’ve noted divergent innovation rates in plant-based meats vs plant-based
nutritional snacks and dairy products, for example. How quickly are innovations coming to light in CEA?
RC: I could speak about design, construction and operation of greenhouses and vertical farms. I would say
that there is a rash of technology that’s been developed, and so there’s more technology out there than the
market could assimilate into their production at this time. I think we’ve seen an explosion of technology come
into the marketplace. I can tell you, when we first started building vertical farms, there wasn’t much of a
supply chain. We had to invent a lot of these things on our own. Now, it’s amazing how deep the supply chain
is, how there are tub manufacturers, valve manufacturers, pump manufacturers, fan manufacturers. It’s an
endless list now of suppliers that have gotten into the marketplace, which will also help advance the market
much quicker.
[00:36:19]
Q: What are typically the major cost buckets for vertical farms or CEA? How are these being mitigated?
RC: The three highest costs, I would say, for a greenhouse and a vertical farm are, (1) labour, (2) rent, and (3)
your utilities. Your growing inputs are a much smaller portion, and then your executive management and your
overhead. Smaller farms typically have much less overhead. Larger farms have much more but they could
amortise it over a larger revenue base.
NH: How has technology played a role in mitigating these costs, such as through automation of labour?
RC: On labour, automation and artificial intelligence and software are helping to address the labour issue.
Typically, that’s more at your lower end part of the labour market. On rent, people are getting more creative on
being able to grow a higher density crop on a smaller footprint so they’re getting more utilisation of a space.
On utilities, there’s a big push with micro grids and renewable energy to get lower utility costs, so I think
there’s a lot of technology in all those areas trying to drive those costs down.
[00:38:26]
Q: How hard is it for these players to establish new relationships with grocers to get their products sold? How
significant is the branding and marketing hurdle to getting that product to the end user after investing all the
technology to grow it in a cost-efficient, unique way?
RC: In my opinion, the agricultural industry is a challenging industry but it also attracts a large amount of
passionate people. The biggest challenge that I see in the marketplace… The winners and losers in this
business are differentiated by their business model and their ability to get their product to market at a high
level of quality. They want it to look the same way it left the farm as it does at their customer, so that’s a
challenge. Keeping a cold chain and keeping those products safe is very important, and giving them the right
climate. This is also a business that is built on relationships. Many of these long-standing players have been in
the marketplace for 20, 30, 40 years, so when you go into a grocery store and you disrupt them, unless you
have a new variety of tomato or lettuce or a new packaging or you’re organic or pestacide-free, you have to
have something that really differentiates you to displace this long-standing relationship, and so it’s very
competitive. Produce buyers are inundated with requests. It’s very hard to get their attention. It’s made it even
more difficult in COVID because you can’t meet face-to-face at trade shows and conventions, so I think it’s
extremely challenging to break into this marketplace with a new brand. It takes a high level of creativity. You
really have to have a high-quality product that’s somewhat different than your competitor.
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[00:41:35]
Q: What are your thoughts on AppHarvest starting production with tomatoes?
RC: Tomatoes is a market that can be highly profitable, so they’ve picked a high-value crop to start with, but
tomatoes are finicky, so you really need to have a very good grower and you have to have a good system that’s
specially designed to grow tomatoes. I think the good news is they’ve picked a high-quality crop where there
can be good margins. The bad news is that one of the big players, if they wanted to compete aggressively with
AppHarvest, they can come into a regional market and really sell their tomatoes at a very discounted price,
and they can do that for some long time. Since they’re national and they’re well-established, they can move
money in a market to buy market share. I think that’s the challenge facing AppHarvest, is can they get a high-
quality product to market? Can they brand it? Can they differentiate themselves and can they be cost-
competitive if they’re getting in a pricing war?
[00:42:56]
Q: Which other high-margin crops do you think would be well-suited to AppHarvest’s strategy?
RC: Potted herbs are a high-value crop. Certain lettuces and cut lettuces are high-value crops. Mushrooms are
high-value crops. Very difficult to grow, but saffron, turmeric, ginger, wasabi are other high-value crops.
[00:43:38]
Q: Can you elaborate on AppHarvest’s competitor set of well-established peers and new entrants?
RC: Mastronardi has been in the greenhouse business, I think, 40 or 50 years. They’re out of Leamington,
Ontario, which is tomato capital for indoor growing in North America. They command a large percentage of
the tomato market share. They’re, I’d say, in the top 20 major retail stores, Walmarts, Costco, Meijers,
Krogers, they’re just well-established in the marketplace. Newer entrants on the tomato end would be
MightyVine out of Illinois and Bright Farms. You’re seeing their products in the marketplace. They’re branded,
they’re known and all these companies produce high-quality tomatoes.
[00:45:17]
Q: What is your outlook for potential policy implications with more stringent quality requirements for large
traditional producers? Could such developments strengthen the opportunity for small-scale CEA farms?
RC: Where I see a lot of regulations coming in is in food safety, traceability of your product, management of
your water and your waste. Sometimes, it’s better for the bigger companies because the bigger companies can
have staff that’s dedicated to those issues. Smaller companies are trying to do everything and some of these
regulatory and policy issues get complex, and so, in my mind, I see that being a barrier to market entry that
could be advantageous to larger companies.
[00:46:46]
Q: How is the CEA landscape developing in international markets? Is this very much a US trend, or has there
been an explosion of this farming type in Europe or Asia?
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RC: This is clearly a global landscape. The Dutch have long been leaders in indoor greenhouses. You’re
starting to now see that expertise transferred around the world. The US is becoming very competitive with the
Dutch on greenhouse technologies. Vertical farming, in my opinion, is really a US-born technology and we’re
seeing lots of interest globally around the world, Asia specifically, Indonesia, any areas where there are large
populations and where there are issues with water or soil, so it’s clearly a global market.
[00:48:32]
Q: What is your outlook on deal activity and potential M&A – particularly bigger players scooping up start-ups
and implementing their technology or resources at a far larger scale?
RC: I think the indoor vertical farming technology market is still to nascent for mergers, there’s just not
enough revenue and profitability in these companies. On the greenhouse end, there’s a lot of potential activity.
There are a lot of manufacturers of greenhouse technologies that have been established that are seeing record
earnings, partially because of the marijuana industry, and partially because just the vegetable industry, if
you’re supplying to grocery stores, as I said earlier, you’re doing a bang-up business.
[00:49:30]
Q: Can you outline the opportunity between the cannabis and vegetable industries? Would you anticipate
some of these farmers with the right resources switching over to just producing cannabis, or are there high
barriers to entry given the regulatory environment?
RC: I would break the cannabis market into two. There’s hemp and there is marijuana, same plant, just
differentiated by the amount of THC that’s present. Hemp is federally legal and each state has the ability to
create a hemp plan that is submitted to the federal government to get approved. Most states right now are
allowing hemp to be grown and a number of farmers have rushed into the hemp market. There’s a severe price
erosion that’s not been very profitable. There has been an overproduction of supply and a decrease in demand.
The marijuana market is highly regulated. It’s very competitive to get a state licence. It is not federally legal. I
think half the states have legalised marijuana and if you have the political contacts and the capital within your
state, you can get a licence. Licences typically are limited and expensive to get, in excess, sometimes, of USD
1m to complete that process, and it takes real skill to grow hemp or marijuana. You can have capital, you can
have political contacts, you can have a licence, but then you’ve got to get the staff that is knowledgeable to
grow marijuana and be able to get your processes in place.
The good news is, the crop is such high value, in the high hundreds to thousands of dollars a pound, but you
can make a lot of mistakes and still be very profitable in the marijuana business, so the growers that can will
grow it. One more thing I should add is that a lot of states mandate that you have to be vertically integrated.
You can’t just grow it. You also have to be able to process it, deliver it and sell it, and so that’s where growers
tend to not play in this marketplace. They may be subcontracted to grow, but they have to be part of a
vertically-integrated operation.
[00:52:54]
Q: What are your best- and worst-case scenarios for AppHarvest and CEA over the next six months?
RC: AppHarvest, again, I’ve not been to their facilities. In my opinion, they’re a start-up. Their challenges are
they really have to get their crop growing consistently. They have to get their operating procedures in place.
They’ve got to get their staff trained and educated on their culture and their environment and their processes.
Then, they really have to get their branding, marketing and sales up. They’ve got a lot to do in a short time
because once the Spac goes through and they’re a public company, there’s going to be a lot of pressure for
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quarterly reporting and they’re going to have start showing some correlation to their projections. The
controlled-environment ag industry is going to remain very hot, both globally and domestically. There’s just an
increased interest from COVID to shorten the tail of the supply chain. The public really is demanding locally-
grown produce that’s pestacide-free and growing that in greenhouses and vertical farms is one way to achieve
that.
[00:54:33]
Q: How do you expect AppHarvest to utilise the USD 400m or USD 500m cash it has raised?
RC: To build a high-tech greenhouse with glass and supplemental lighting so you can grow consistently year
round costs somewhere between USD 1m to USD 2m depending on where you’re located and what your land
cost is, and that would be to design, engineer and build it. If you have a 100-acre greenhouse, that’s
somewhere between USD 100m to USD 200m. If they’re going to deploy capital into structures, it doesn’t buy
them a lot of growing space. The large growers have hundreds of thousands of acres under roof, so for them to
be competitive on a large scale, they’re going to have to build out facilities or, like a lot of the other growers do,
they’ll grow small percentages internally, and then they’ll subcontract growers to grow under their brand. I’m
not sure which way AppHarvest will go. Will they become a marketing and branding company that builds a
niche like Dole or Del Monte or Sunset Grown Produce and they grow a small amount, develop quality
standards and growing processes and procedures, and then contract growers, or will they try to do that all
internally?
[00:56:25]
Q: Are there any commonly overlooked aspects of CEA that you think investors should be aware of?
RC: I think it’s (audio cuts out 56.39-56.48) logical production. You’re not making shoes or cars where you
stamp every car out and it’s consistent. These are biologicals. Things happen and pests occur. You never
eliminate pests, you can only control those. Everything takes longer to produce and to generate revenues and
profits to get your systems down, to get your plants growing well. I think that’s an area that’s overlooked. The
other area is genetics. Many of these seeds are bred for field farming and possibly greenhouse. Only recently
have geneticists been focused on breeding seeds that can be grown indoors under LED lights, so I think you’re
going to see a fantastic explosion of opportunity from some of these new genetics that are coming out.
[00:57:52]
NH: That’s a really interesting point, and a great place to conclude today’s Interview. Let me close by saying
thank you, Robert, for your input. It’s a really interesting market and a complex topic. Thank you, clients, for
joining Third Bridge Forum’s Interview today. If you would like to speak to Robert in a private call or meeting,
please let your relationship manager know. Thank you all again for joining.
Transcription ends at 00:58:09 of the recorded material
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