Chobani IPO – Channel Position & Category Opportunities
– 4 August 2021
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Specialist:
Title:
Moderator: Nyree Hinton (NH), Third Bridge Sector Analyst
Cagdas Sirin (CS)
Former SVP, Insights & Category Development at Chobani LLC
Agenda:
1. Yogurt, milk and alternative dairy consumption trends and impact on Chobani across categories
2. Better-for-you market innovations – Chobani vs Oatly and others
3. Foodservice opportunities and the threat of private label
4. Industry pricing dynamics and marketing strategies
Contents
Q: Could you provide an overview of the dairy industry as it relates to yoghurt products and similar
categories?
Q: Are there any specific categories that you think consumers are more adaptive to when considering an
alternative dairy product, or are all those categories growing at very high rates?
3
4
Q: How have the trends in this sector accelerated or evolved throughout coronavirus? Which players do you
think are taking advantage of these trends?
4
Q: How has Chobani’s category offerings changed over the years? It is traditionally considered a yoghurt
company, but obviously is present in a number of other categories such as oat milk?
5
Q: What are the ingredient-sourcing challenges around Chobani’s average spending portfolio of different
products within dairy, yoghurt and oat milk? How much pressure is that putting on cost or innovation? How
much more of a challenge is it to get the right ingredients to provide better-for-you or alternative products
for consumers?
5
Q: What are your thoughts on Chobani’s plans to go public? What are the pros and cons, given the
company’s strategy around alternative products and innovation? How long does it take to get a new product
to market? Could going public hinder the company in being more competitive or innovative throughout its
portfolio?
Q: You mentioned Greek was going through explosive growth and then started to flatten out. Is that a
common cycle throughout many of these different products within dairy, or better-for-you innovations?
What product cycle timelines or buying patterns have you noticed?
Q: How would you assess Chobani’s opportunities in the US vs Europe? Is it too complicated a task, given
higher cost ramifications, supplier chain management and channel management to make an international
presence within its categories?
5
6
6
Q: Are the better-for-you products actually revolutionising around ingredient sourcing, or is it more of a
marketing ploy? If you reduce a product’s sugar by 10%, could you claim certain attributes from a marketing
perspective to entice the consumer to think it’s better than it might be for them? What is the dynamic of
being better-for-you and investing in the right ingredients vs tweaking marketing strategy to be more
appealing to the consumer? Is it a bit of both?
7
Q: Could you elaborate on your comments around maintaining brand affinity? Chobani will have to rebuild
or rollout a new brand when entering so many different new categories and products. How successful has it
been at rebranding and rolling out new products and brands?
7
Q: How fragmented are some of the categories that Chobani plays in? Do you think the opportunity is
greater in the more fragmented areas or the consolidated areas where the company could take share from
traditional players failing to innovate across their product lines? How does a company manage and decide to
build a presence in a category?
8
Q: Chobani plays in yoghurt which has a short shelf life and therefore requires a strong distribution
footprint. How are manufacturers thinking about the opportunities in foodservice, perhaps through
partnerships? Alternatively, is the focus still on retail because that’s where most of the volume is?
Q: How much of a threat or competitive problem is private label? Private label has jumped into many of the
categories that many manufacturers play in, such as dairy, poultry or snacks. How well has private label
products positioned themselves within dairy products? What challenges might they face around ingredient-
processing to compete on alternative products?
Q: What pricing trends have you noticed within these categories? What effect has private label had on
pricing? Could you outline Chobani’s ability to continue to price at a premium? How much can it
continuously raise prices? Do you expect a high amount of promotional activity?
8
9
9
Q: Chobani is a very good marketer and brand-building company. To be effective in these products, is the
strategy to get marketing dollars into every channel possible, whether it’s digitally, through partnerships or
advertisements? Alternatively, is there a better use of those dollars?
10
Q: Is there anything you think is commonly overlooked within yoghurt, milk and alternative dairy products?
What should investors monitor in H2 2021 and FY22?
10
Chobani IPO – Channel Position & Category
Opportunities
Transcription begins at 00:00:01 of the recorded material
NH: Welcome to Third Bridge Forum’s Interview entitled Chobani IPO – Channel Position & Category
Opportunities. I am Nyree Hinton, and I’ll be facilitating today’s Interview with Mr PR [sic] Cagdas Sirin,
former SVP, Insights and Category Development at Chobani LLC.
Cagdas, before we get started with today’s Interview, please state I agree or I disagree to the following
statement: You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any
such information, or any other information which is confidential, during this Interview.
CS: I agree.
NH: Could you introduce yourself and your background?
CS: My background? Briefly, I’m in the research and insight business for almost 20 years. I was a former
professor, and I taught in the university for about 10 years. I have a PhD in economics, and then statistical
econometrics. Then I studied the US economy as consumers, and then I did research in academia as well as in
the professional life in the food and beverage sector. I work with several companies in the US, and Chobani
was the last one and after that I started my own company for the last three years. I’m an entrepreneur, and I
manage my own company.
[00:01:29]
Q: Could you provide an overview of the dairy industry as it relates to yoghurt products and similar
categories?
CS: It’s started to target (inaudible 01.47), I think there’s a very continental shift, that’s what I would call it, in
the consumers’ demand towards the more natural, more better-for-you product, and then the protein were the
leading factors during that time. Then, the consumer is basically looking for those alternative products that are
healthier, better for them, and I think Chobani entered that picture (ph 02.14), will do it, it’s (inaudible 02.15)
like that, and now consumers are looking for better options for their consumption set, but globally into the
other categories. In the dairy category, we know that milk is, of course, it’s a commodity, it’s the leading
category within the dairy industry, but it’s up and down with the plant-based products emerging in the last 10
years, etc, and them taking away some of the shares from that. In yoghurt specifically, there was a Greek
yoghurt revolution during 2010, and that changed the dynamics over the time, and the overall yoghurt
category grew almost USD 7bn-8bn, but the last 2-3 years, I think it’s stagnated. It’s reached the saturation
point. Even though you have consumers consuming less yoghurt than their European counterparts in terms of
per capita consumption of yoghurt, I think, with France, Turkey, Greece, they consume almost 5-6 times more
yoghurt than the US consumers on average. In a nutshell, over the years, we see that the Greek yoghurt take
over and then reach almost a USD 4bn-5bn market, and overall market size and overall total yoghurt is almost
USD 9bn right now in the US. These are all based on the US, and of the IRI data, so it’s available to everyone,
actually. Then the overall dynamic over the last 10 years, in that way, consumers are switching from the high-
sugars, low-protein alternatives, and then low-protein products, and the low-sugar, high-protein alternatives.
Then, there is this shift going on almost 10 years.
Private and confidential 3
[00:04:18]
Q: Are there any specific categories that you think consumers are more adaptive to when considering an
alternative dairy product, or are all those categories growing at very high rates?
CS: In the beginning, the whole category was growing significantly, 5-6% YoY. The non-Greek category was
slowly growing, but mostly the share shifted from non-Greek to Greek side, Greek yoghurt types, and then
Danone entered that market with their Triple Zero brand, or Oikos and their Triple Zero, and then Yoplait
entered that market. There is (? 05.14) that’s the original, that’s been in the market also for almost 20 years.
That shift happened over five, six, 10 years, and I think right now, there is another slow, I wouldn’t say it’s a
shift, but there is another growth approaching this in the non, or plant-based or non-dairy yoghurt space.
Then, there is some movement over there, some innovation, some consumers are shifting, but still, I would say
it is not a major growth opportunity here, but obviously that’s some of the improvements, some of the
developments in the non-dairy category, plant-based yoghurt category.
In the other side, overall yoghurt category, we see there is another shift, actually, it has been also growing for
almost 9-10 years, I would say, but now it is becoming more significant as traditionally the amount of sugar in
the yoghurts, that’s gotten less. Again, it’s mostly with fruit in it, etc, that there is lots of sugar, and when I say
lots, actually it has been 25-40 grams of sugar per serving, right now, on average I think it’s 15-22 grams of
sugar per serving, almost 50% less. Now you see Danone, and I think Yoplait and then others also, as Chobani
entered the end of last year with less sugar of alternatives, and that could be another driving factor in the
growth, actually. I think that Danone, the Two Good brand, Chobani, I think, just recently announced zero-
sugar yoghurt, I think Yoplait also has some sort of product. That’s another trend going on in the yoghurt
space, if you fancy talking about that. Then, on the other hand, it’s the plant-based one. Of course, the milk
alternatives are growing in that sense. Oatly is the one that is most likely (? 07.25) about their IPO. They are
the driving factors in that brand. When it comes to the yoghurt side of the plant-based, I’m not sure it is that
big. All three, I think there is about USD 10bn, something like that, but I don’t see we will see some plant-
based developments becoming that huge.
[00:07:52]
Q: How have the trends in this sector accelerated or evolved throughout coronavirus? Which players do you
think are taking advantage of these trends?
CS: It’s hard, actually. The foodservice is a big part of the business, in terms of some of the brands of some of
the players. Over time, I think you’d see that they have shifted, it’s a temporary shift, people are consuming,
beginning to consume more yoghurt at home because it was outside, etc. That was a temporary freeze. In
terms of yoghurt, I believe that will affect the sales data from (inaudible 08.43), but right now, I don’t think it
will continue that way. Consumers’ perception in terms of better-for-you products, it will be the current trend.
When I say better-for-you, I think that recently I just did, I also did a research activity, of course it was another
project, but we asked how many percent of the time, we calculate that about 70% of consumers are buying
natural organic products to their households. It wasn’t that high before. Right now, consumers are much more
inclined to buy natural, organic, or raw, not raw-raw, but more unprocessed or less processed products. That’s
why we are seeing this IPO thing recently, actually, in the food and business sectors that play in that space.
Then, I can talk a couple of (? 09.47) about brand, yoghurts and Oatly, another example, etc, Chobani could be
another example. We see that attracting consumers in that space, and then we see all of these (inaudible
10.07) for example, is emerging from that area.
Private and confidential 4
[00:10:15]
Q: How has Chobani’s category offerings changed over the years? It is traditionally considered a yoghurt
company, but obviously is present in a number of other categories such as oat milk?
CS: The yoghurt market, overall market size is about USD 10bn, if you add the food service, etc, I don’t know,
the service size cannot be calculated exactly, but if you add that side, may be it’s USD 10bn-11bn, but that’s the
maximum that the size of that market is. Then, every yoghurt brand that you see that emerged in the last 10
years, they’ve tried to grow with the adjacent categories to develop some products, some innovations, to carry
their brand over to the other categories. I think Chobani did a great job on that one, actually. I might be biased
actually, because I used to work there a couple of years ago, but overall, as I said, I am still doing some
research for companies and for myself, we recently analysed about 20 different, actually not 20, 50 different
brands, the brand equity. I worked with the NY professor to understand how brand affinity works, brand
equity, and then how consumers value the brands. Chobani emerged, as you just said, it’s not just yoghurt, it’s
beyond yoghurt actually because it’s placed in different areas, the social issues, and much more, and locally,
how to get out to the local communities, etc. The brand itself becomes beyond the yoghurt. Last year, I believe,
they announced, I think, they entered two, three, four different categories, coffee creamers, oat milk, of course,
you mentioned, cold brew coffee and then the probiotic drink, so basically four new categories, and then you
are starting from zero. Overall, that category’s market size, now you are playing about USD 35bn category
overall, which is huge. The brand itself has lots of equity, lots of high affinity from the consumers, it looks like.
I think I can say that if you can put that Chobani on it, I’m sure they will sell (inaudible 13.32), because the
name of Chobani, you can enter the clothing business, is what I am saying. That’s the brand equity of Chobani,
and then it looks like there’s a new category, and they were getting attention. I don’t have the numbers on that
one. Even if I have, I can’t give it.
[00:13:57]
Q: What are the ingredient-sourcing challenges around Chobani’s average spending portfolio of different
products within dairy, yoghurt and oat milk? How much pressure is that putting on cost or innovation? How
much more of a challenge is it to get the right ingredients to provide better-for-you or alternative products for
consumers?
CS: Let me say this first. If the consumers’ interest towards the better-for-you products has been increasing,
the procurement or sourcing of those kinds of products also becomes more and more easy over the years,
because also suppliers adapted, and they are now producing those products of natural sweeteners, or natural
fruit products, etc. Then, this also makes suppliers, in terms of United States, it’s not as hard as Europe or the
rest of the world like that. I don’t see there is a challenge in terms of procurement or sourcing for those kinds
of ingredients, because now lots of suppliers adapted to developing those processes, producing organic and
natural ingredients. Maybe with COVID, there might be some challenges with some players, but I see overall
there are plenty of alternatives and opportunities to supply from (? 15.51) source, all natural or non-artificial
ingredients easily.
[00:16:03]
Q: What are your thoughts on Chobani’s plans to go public? What are the pros and cons, given the company’s
strategy around alternative products and innovation? How long does it take to get a new product to market?
Could going public hinder the company in being more competitive or innovative throughout its portfolio?
CS: We know that, in all start-ups or young companies, product innovation and route-to-market is so short
compared to the others, established big three or big three in the people doing business now, people doing
business in this space. Typically, the investors also expect it to be that way, and not necessarily this way. This
is a public IPO, going public. Let me say, they must be able to keep that gene in their fold in order to be more
agile and innovative. I am sure it will not hinder that category, because with most of the categories they just
Private and confidential 5
entered, it’s new categories for them, and there was lots of opportunity for that specific brand to be successful
there. I don’t think it will negatively affect that agility of that innovation, to promote and innovate your skills.
[00:18:45]
Q: You mentioned Greek was going through explosive growth and then started to flatten out. Is that a
common cycle throughout many of these different products within dairy, or better-for-you innovations? What
product cycle timelines or buying patterns have you noticed?
CS: We all see this growth pattern, it counts as exponential growth, but nothing can grow for really long time
periods, like exponentially, probably 5-10% YoY. Then we see in many categories, actually the yoghurt is one of
them, and has been happening for a couple of years, it’s reached that saturation point, that you reach many of
the consumers who think this product is better for them, and then they are repeated oral consumption, you’ll
get a Greek consumption per capita if there’s a lot, but you cannot go beyond that saturation point. Usually,
the product cycle, we talk about product cycles if it were a trend, where it becomes popular, everyone
consumes it, and then it just dies down. That’s why I said continental shift, or the structural shift, I think a
more technical term is this, a (? 20.25) structural shift term that you can analyse by looking at data. Then we
see that actually there was a structural shift in the consumer demand, not a trend. It means that it’s not going
to go back to the previous level, it’s not going to die, but it’s going to reach a point where it will float over there.
It might go out a bit further, if you get more innovative products, etc, but that’s the point where it stays, and it
becomes a new category itself. If you go to the stores right now, you see the Greek yoghurt aisle. What aisles?
Greek yoghurt set on the market, there was no Greek yoghurt set 10 years ago. Now, it’s sometimes four feet,
sometimes 12 feet along, Greek yoghurt sets, it’s huge. There are, I think, 300 SKU on average, the local
grocers, or if you go to the Publix or the other one. It means that it’s reached that saturation point, but it’s hard
to say.
Then, you get the other product cycles. Oat milk has the same thing, actually. I think it’s not a trend, it’s here
to stay, and then it grows, but up to a point, you cannot force people to drink more oat milk, or force people to
eat more Greek yoghurt. The only thing that might grow those categories again, if there is a outside shock.
Obesity or diabetes is one example that could trigger again the growth in those categories. That’s why we are
seeing these low-sugar options in this category, because if you look at the US data, I think one out of every 10
individuals has diabetes, or I think one in every third Americans have pre-diabetes, something like that, that
raises the sugar intake issue, etc. Then that’s why we are seeing all this sugar avoidance in the product
manufacturing in the food and beverage sector. That might trigger another growth in these categories, if there
is some new innovation. To that point, actually, if you look at the European consumption, in the Greek or
Turkish yoghurt consumption data, almost 90% of the yoghurt is consumed plain in those countries, but if you
look at the US data, almost 90% of the yoghurt consumed is flavoured, and either fruit-based or with honey
added, this kind of thing. There might be some shift between non-plain to plain, and the plain might grow.
However, we don’t see that trend yet in that particular area towards the plain. The plain yoghurt could grow a
little bit in the food service, and as well as in home usage in kitchens, as a food additive. As people, I think
dieticians begin to, we see that dieticians are offering yoghurt, the plain yoghurt more and more. There was
some survey that had been done with dieticians. Then, we see that trend also going up a little bit, because
dieticians recommend plain yoghurt, but it will change the dynamics in the marketplace here.
[00:24:00]
Q: How would you assess Chobani’s opportunities in the US vs Europe? Is it too complicated a task, given
higher cost ramifications, supplier chain management and channel management to make an international
presence within its categories?
CS: If you look at their website, they already say that they have sought information in Mexico and Canada, and
then they have a factory in Australia too. They have knowledge and some expertise in that international
market. I think, in Australia, Chobani is the number one or two brand also. I think they learned something
Private and confidential 6
from that they can apply to other markets easily, especially the European markets, European Union. Then we
have the United States market, so there could be opportunities over there. As you said, there could be
challenges over there, but they were already operating internationally, is what I am trying to say.
[00:25:24]
Q: Are the better-for-you products actually revolutionising around ingredient sourcing, or is it more of a
marketing ploy? If you reduce a product’s sugar by 10%, could you claim certain attributes from a marketing
perspective to entice the consumer to think it’s better than it might be for them? What is the dynamic of being
better-for-you and investing in the right ingredients vs tweaking marketing strategy to be more appealing to
the consumer? Is it a bit of both?
CS: I think, for the better-for-you products, as a brand, you have to be genuine, actually. We see that some
established brands, that they tried to enter those spaces, and then some of them ended up catastrophically,
because they said that if you have changed your ingredients to natural, better-for-you, you have been, quote,
unquote, poisoning us for about 30, 40, 50 years. It tends to go hand-in-hand with the brands, and the brands
are able to keep trust, so it has to be genuine, otherwise consumers are not buying that promise, as you said,
it’s just complete marketing gimmicks. Overall, those companies, the established companies also, I believe
they’re improving their ingredients. Let me say this. When you improve your, when you develop a better-for-
you product, there has been distaste. Some companies that develop very good products with excellent
ingredients, but it tastes terrible. The consumers, what the consumers are looking at right now, so you have to
know whether this would be good, natural or as little artificial ingredient, and it has to taste good, and then it
should be affordable also, that’s another thing that you look at, a list (ph 27.57). When you build these three
together, consumers will know. For the food and beverage industry, you cannot fake the taste, you cannot fake
the consumers’ experience, because they taste it, if they are coming and buying it again, it means that they like
your product. That’s the repeat velocity metrics that has been used in the CPG industry, and that’s very good
metrics to gauge the success of the product itself.
Those two metrics work very well for the better-for-you product, if you can get the taste right. I’m not a
dietician, but there is science, I have lots of articles in those scientific journals, there is clear science that sugar
intake causes some negative effects, actually, high intakes of any product, any ingredient, especially many
ingredients (inaudible 29.05), but the sugar intake is one of the main things. They’ve got some other artificial
ingredients, the tolerance, etc, to create some issue, and then there is some science behind it, or sometimes the
consumer really avoids it, begins to avoid (? 29.21) with you, but overall, I cannot speak on how scientifically
true, but there is some science behind it. The better-for-you products, if you do it right, it is not a marketing
gimmick, and the consumer rewards those companies when they do it right. Then, we see Oatly, one example,
actually. Why they became so saturated there was oat milk before it, but they did something special, and it
really became successful. An example I can use, (? 29.53) is a good example, actually. I had been buying them
before they became successful. They were genuine, they were using natural ingredients, and then, you can read
everything on the label, and then you believe in that brand. Then you add the three together, which is beyond
marketing any more, or my personal opinion.
[00:30:20]
Q: Could you elaborate on your comments around maintaining brand affinity? Chobani will have to rebuild or
rollout a new brand when entering so many different new categories and products. How successful has it been
at rebranding and rolling out new products and brands?
CS: Good question. Let me think. I can’t think of another brand, but what you see, actually, from that
research, consumers are much more linked to the product that they believe in, and then, when they see that
product, the brand name, beyond that category, that that brand usually is able to easily capture their existing
consumer base in other categories that they enter. Then, that’s the first moment of truth that’s in the
marketing division. You are able to get that benefit, and if you are an established brand in the one category,
Private and confidential 7
and you are entering another category, that brand definitely reaps you some advantage if you are a good
brand, because getting that product, the consumer has the most difficulty, as an entrepreneur and a start-up,
and as a start-up I know this fact in a very harsh way, it’s very hard to get the consumers’ attention, but if you
are entering a new category where you are trusted, a well-known brand, so you get this advantage. Then, if you
do the product development right, and then, based on what you see in that (? 32.21) category, what the
company does. There is some advantage over there, and that brand affinity can be carried over into other
categories easily in that sense. I have one example, but even though it’s in the clothing part, they were
successful in some categories that they tried, etc, because of that brand affinity, etc. There is some science and
research behind that, showing that this brand affinity, brand equity in the other categories helped that brand
to capture the consumer attention that they get some share from that. In that sense, those categories could be
a great advantage for the established brands like that, to get first consumer attention, and then after that, of
course, it gets repeated, and then it gets velocity, how often they buy this product, etc, purchase cycle.
[00:33:31]
Q: How fragmented are some of the categories that Chobani plays in? Do you think the opportunity is greater
in the more fragmented areas or the consolidated areas where the company could take share from traditional
players failing to innovate across their product lines? How does a company manage and decide to build a
presence in a category?
CS: The categories they (inaudible 34.19) categories, oat milk, coffee creamer, etc. It’s a very old category, but
there wasn’t much innovation with that, there could be some disruption over there, but for the other
categories, there wasn’t, so cold brew coffee, it’s emerging, and then this nitro coffee, etc, the nitro innovation,
etc, that’s energised that category also. I know that there are lots of players entering that space, and they’re
growing. Then, overall, they’re all the drink. (Inaudible 34.59) my expertise a little bit recently. There is this
also structural shift in the overall beverage category, that consumers will get the carbonated drinks, and so
they have been planning double-digits for the last 10-20 years, but some people are not going to the drink
products, they are still consuming a lot since, but now they are shifting the consumption to the alternative
drinks, the probiotic drinks, the cold brews, etc. Oat milk has also benefited from that, having people drinking
more coffee at home, etc.
Overall, those categories all benefited from the decline in the carbonated beverage side, and then that decline
coming to this, what I call is the functional drink category, and then that category is growing significantly,
actually, for the last 5-10 years. Then, as you said, Chobani is not entering in that. Kombucha, you might have
heard that market, they are growing. A couple of companies, over just USD 1bn valuation or above. That
category also has become at the onset right now, and CBD-based drinks, etc. They are all functional drink
categories, and that’s growing significantly. Then, some of the products are put in that category also. Then, in
terms of fragmentation, I think those categories, I don’t know what you mean with fragmented, but already
some of them are very small, niche, but they are all growing, and there’s not much one player dominate, except
the coffee creamer market. There are challenges and opportunities in those categories.
[00:37:11]
Q: Chobani plays in yoghurt which has a short shelf life and therefore requires a strong distribution footprint.
How are manufacturers thinking about the opportunities in foodservice, perhaps through partnerships?
Alternatively, is the focus still on retail because that’s where most of the volume is?
CS: Food service definitely is not very big, it’s not very small either. It’s here to stay, and it’s a big part,
certainly for all the companies that I work with, and then especially for the dairy category also. The challenges,
the supply chain, distribution, it only has a short shelf life, etc, that’s relatively easier to solve in the United
States, because there are distribution partners, and the retailers have the one DC naturally, and nothing is very
easy, but it’s relatively easy to these kinds of operations. Food service is also the same way. Also, for food
service, you need to make, there are channels under the food service, there is the chain restaurant, there is the
Private and confidential 8
fast food restaurant, there is the hotel, there is the restaurant, there are the schools, universities, military.
There are lots of different areas, and all of them have different challenges and opportunities. Some of them are
bulk, some of them are regular cup but it goes in specific places, sold in specific places. Overall, there is lots of
opportunity in those areas, and then, in the food service restaurant, hotels, cafes, chains, all big players have a
footprint. That channel is also growing, because they are switching also to the better-for-you products. Even in
some fast food restaurants or chains, that they are trying something that you never heard five years ago, some
are getting in some products, all-natural or organic, etc, McDonald’s is one example. This opportunity also is
there, the fast food business also coming more towards the better-for-you side, and that might help those
companies that play in that area.
[00:40:59]
Q: How much of a threat or competitive problem is private label? Private label has jumped into many of the
categories that many manufacturers play in, such as dairy, poultry or snacks. How well has private label
products positioned themselves within dairy products? What challenges might they face around ingredient-
processing to compete on alternative products?
CS: Private label is a big trade threat in, let’s say, the cheese category, or the milk category, because it’s a
commodity. When I say cheese, the commercial cheese. In the milk, also private label is huge, I think 50% of
the milks are sold private label, or more even. When it comes to this innovative taste and then offerings to
different ingredients, etc, private label is just a follower over there, and then they sometimes end up
catastrophically bad, and then they just pull out from that segment. In the yoghurt category, I think it’s still,
from recent data, I’m not sure, 15-20%, even less maybe, I might be mistaken actually, with the private label,
and it’s not growing. I think the only way for that, it’s good for me, actually, that’s personal, is that Kroger have
a private label, I think they have two private labels, and it sells a bit good, but overall, for these kind of
innovative categories private label becomes just the followers, and of course they always take some shares, but
it’s not disrupting, because that category I don’t think would be commoditised like milk, or it’s not a
commodity, Greek yoghurt, or the non-Greek yoghurt even. If you look Yoplait, etc, their offering, there’s lots
of private label copies, but still Yoplait is selling a lot of the non-Greek yoghurt. It’s just a fact over there, and
there are the private label, but I don’t think it could be a threat in those categories.
[00:43:55]
Q: What pricing trends have you noticed within these categories? What effect has private label had on pricing?
Could you outline Chobani’s ability to continue to price at a premium? How much can it continuously raise
prices? Do you expect a high amount of promotional activity?
CS: If you look at the US consumer price index, I think 5%, something like that. Inflation is the one factor that
you are seeing that will raise the prices overall across the category. I think, in that sense, the prices might be a
little easier to go up, for everyone actually, not just for Chobani or their product, but overall, I don’t know how
familiar you guys are from the (audio distorts 45.02) system, so the EDLP, everyday low price, accounts that
they don’t promote, we just put the product over there to stay with that price. Walmart is a good example for
everyday low pricing. (Inaudible 45.15) I could name a couple of others, they’re still mostly EDLP. There are
also high-low pricing companies, they promote, but they usually have their own promotion calendars, so
Publix or, I think can give you the example of Publix, Kroger are high-low also mostly. If you are innovative
and if you keep innovating, you can ask for opinion, actually, and innovate a new product, and then consumers
would like to try. We see all across the whole category in dairy, and then in drink categories actually, if you
come up with an innovative new product line, and you ask for a premium price, and then of course, over time,
when the others begin to follow you, you are losing some of the edge on pricing, but that’s why you have to
keep innovating. I believe companies that you are following and interested in, if you see that they keep
innovating, I wouldn’t worry about their ability to ask for a premium price for their product. After a certain
time period, when others enter that base, your competitors, you are going to lose that market power.
Private and confidential 9
[00:46:48]
Q: Chobani is a very good marketer and brand-building company. To be effective in these products, is the
strategy to get marketing dollars into every channel possible, whether it’s digitally, through partnerships or
advertisements? Alternatively, is there a better use of those dollars?
CS: I cannot speak specifically on Chobani’s case, in this case, I don’t know of the details, how they do that,
because I’m not a marketing person over there. I do not know. I know the details, but I cannot share those
ones, but I can speak overall in the category, and then in this marketing space, if you want me to elaborate on
that one, I can elaborate, but I cannot speak specifically for Chobani’s case.
NH: Sure, that works.
CS: Overall, if you look at the missing (ph 48.13), and a couple, I think IPSOS releases annual reports
sometimes, and then there are some other companies you can look at, how much a company is spending on
live media, or addressable media vs the traditional one. We see that this is shifting in every industry, actually.
Now, companies are spending more and more on the social, digital, and then of course trade marketing is
always a big chunk of the spending for everyone, because the retailers require you to spend, and that requires
you to do promotions, etc. We see that in all the companies, including my own company actually, we are
diversifying our spending with multiple different strategies, social, digital, influencers. Of course, traditional
media also is still relevant, and plays a big chunk. It also depends on which market you are entering, or
geographically, are you entering the nationwide or regional? That also plays important. Also, nowadays,
retailers also begin to put more emphasis on advertising your brand to attract more consumers to your stores,
so that’s much more diversified than 20 years, 10 years ago, so that’s for sure. It’s almost something that’s a
50/50 actually, it used to be 80-90% traditional and 10% non-traditional live media. Now, it’s 50/50, or some
companies even 90% is their live addressable media, and then 10% traditional. We are seeing across all the
categories this kind of trend.
[00:48:33]
Q: Is there anything you think is commonly overlooked within yoghurt, milk and alternative dairy
products? What should investors monitor in H2 2021 and FY22?
CS: I don’t know what the investors should do, but I would look at the new, innovative, young companies, and
what they are doing, because they are driving their innovation. What you are seeing for established companies,
100 years old, etc, they are getting the innovation by buying out those new companies, and then learning from
them, and then growing from their success. I would just look at the companies that get attention of the big
guys, and then also look at the consumer demand in the better-for-you, where you will see this better-for-you
in the clothing, better-for-you in the cleaning, personal care, etc. That’s not a marketing trick. It’s a consumer-
driven shift, I would say. It’s not the supply side or the producer-driven shift, this one, this is consumer
demand. Then, in H2 2021 if this category is dairy and milk, the plant-based is growing, and will continue to
grow, but overall, if you’re in a category where you’ve changed the dynamic, if you are in a category which is
100 years old, but it’s the same players, etc, and if there are new competitive guys entering that category, I
think there’s a good opportunity for that company to grow. I could give you another example outside of the
dairy. If you look at the gum market, you see the same brands for the last 10 years, the last 100 years, and then
there are some new entrants over there, and then they’re disrupting, even though it’s a small category, we are
seeing that, if you look at the candy category, there are organic candy companies, etc, that’s shifting, shaking
the dynamics a little bit over there. We see all these changes that come from the consumers’ demand for the
clean labels, clean ingredients, better-for-you products, etc. Even the chips, etc, we see that, better-for-your
chips, that area really is better cooking methods, etc. I would look for those innovations, and then the
companies that entered the new categories like that. There’s opportunity to grow in those areas.
Private and confidential 10
[00:53:46]
NH: Great. We will now end the Interview. Let me close by saying thank you, Cagdas, for your input. We were
able to cover a lot. Thank you, clients, for joining Third Bridge Forum’s Interview today. If you would like to
arrange a private meeting or consultation, please contact your relationship managers. Have a good one.
CS: Thank you.
Transcription ends at 00:54:00 of the recorded material
Private and confidential 11