Kraft Heinz Strategic Update – Balancing Margin &
Growth? – 25 March 2021
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Specialist:
Title:
Moderator: Nyree Hinton (NH), Third Bridge Sector Analyst
Jorge (George) Azevedo (JA)
Former Area VP & Head, Sales, Kroger at The Kraft Heinz Co
Agenda:
1. Key segment dynamics and Kraft Heinz's (NASDAQ: KHC) growth prospects, focusing on condiments
and sauces, dairy and ambient foods
2. Execution, innovation and reconnecting with the consumer
3. Consolidation and M&A opportunities
4. Growth and profitability outlook
Contents
Q: What were the key industry trends pre-coronavirus that were relevant to Kraft Heinz’s core categories? 3
Q: How might higher unemployment impact Kraft Heinz’s core retail business? It’s assumed that the
company will continue to benefit as customers eat more at home.
Q: What impact might higher unemployment have on the traditional centre-aisle product categories Kraft
Heinz plays in? Do you think consumers will move away from organic, natural, free-form offerings and
return to the centre aisle for a period of time?
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Q: Kraft Heinz has mentioned rising supply chain costs, which is true for most of the industry. How much
room does it have to raise prices before competitors and store brands start taking meaningful market share?
Alternatively, do you think competitors will follow with their own price increases?
5
Q: Is there any truth to the worry about inflationary pressures? Is input cost rising the way people expect it
to across the industry?
Q: Is there anything else we need to consider about Kraft Heinz or the industry as a whole in H2 2021?
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Q: How much of Kraft Heinz’s underperformance pre-coronavirus was a reflection of its portfolio
positioning, execution or both? What do you think the key issues were?
Q: How would you assess Kraft Heinz’s turnaround programme and progress to date? I think it starts in
2021. You mentioned some of the coronavirus tailwinds are unlikely to stick, but how much might be due to
better execution of the turnaround strategy rather than coronavirus tailwinds?
Q: What do you think about Kraft Heinz’s ability to innovate on new products that are relevant to young
shoppers while also boosting margins and lowering costs?
Q: Kraft Heinz has often been criticised for cutting marketing spend to help improve margins. Marketing
spend was up 11% in 2020 and the company expressed an appetite for further increases. Is this an issue you
think the company is getting to grips with?
Q: Which brands or categories has Kraft Heinz prioritised the most in marketing spend and investment?
Where do you think it should prioritise marketing spend and investment?
Q: How agile do you think Kraft Heinz is in e-commerce? How does it compare to competitors? It seems to
have taken the industry by storm.
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Q: Is Kraft Heinz adequately preparing and innovating along with changing consumer preferences towards
health and wellness?
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Q: What are your thoughts on Kraft Heinz’s decision to sell the Planters business, given it is a very iconic and
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strong brand?
Q: How does the ROI for marketing spend change within e-commerce compared to retail? What are the
challenges associated with digital campaigns?
Q: How big an issue might rising packaging and transportation costs be to Kraft Heinz’s turnaround
strategy?
Q: What role is the environmental impact associated with the product, manufacturing and distribution
playing in the supply chain dynamics?
Q: What do you think is the most material risk in Kraft Heinz’s supply chain when it comes to ESG? Is it
securing its supply chain and making sure labour practices are going well?
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Kraft Heinz Strategic Update – Balancing Margin &
Growth?
Transcription begins at 00:00:00 of the recorded material
NH: Welcome to Third Bridge Forum’s Interview, entitled Kraft Heinz Strategic Update – Balancing Margin
and Growth? I’m Nyree Hinton. I will be facilitating today’s Interview with Mr Jorge Azevedo, former Area VP,
Head, Sales at Kroger at the Kraft Heinz Company.
Jorge, before we get started with today’s Interview, please state I agree or I disagree to the following
statement: You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any
such information or any other information which is confidential during this Interview.
JA: I do and I agree.
NH: Thank you, Jorge. Could you begin with an introduction of your background and previous roles
throughout the industry?
JA: Today, I’m Chief Growth Officer for Planterra Foods, a start-up based in Boulder, Colorado focused on
plant-based protein. Before this role, I had several different roles at Kraft Heinz and prior to that at Heinz
before the merger, that ranged from Global Head of Revenue Management, Director of Sales, Head of Sales
Execution, Head of Sales Finance for the US, especially during the integration between the two companies,
and as Head of Sales for our Kroger business in the US. That was my last role before I moved out.
[00:01:31]
Q: What were the key industry trends pre-coronavirus that were relevant to Kraft Heinz’s core categories?
JA: I think pre-COVID, the packaged food industry was working through a number of competing forces that
were reshaping the landscape of CPG sales. There was a continuous drive for better-for-you ingredients and
foods and processes, as well as a very strong push for ESG. For that, I mean environment and social
governance. That was one. There was a very big polarisation between better-for-you brands, or ESG brands,
and the lower cost push with very acceptable quality by private label, resulting in the squeeze of mainstream
brands and a significant focus on away-from-home and on-the-go consumption. Those were a few of the big
forces in the industry. Kraft Heinz was in a challenging position with a very mainstream portfolio that carried
very little better for you and ESG legacy and was largely a victim of this squeeze. Prior to 2020 and for the past
five years, essentially 100% of the growth in US food had come from manufacturers below the top 25. Kraft
Heinz at number two, just behind Nestlé. It wasn’t necessarily unique to Kraft, but its portfolio surely did not
favour the trends, the large trends that the industry was going towards, so, private label, low barrier to entry
for new entrants and a very big focus on better for you and away-from-home consumption.
NH: How would you say these trends have been impacted by the pandemic? How might consumer behaviour
have changed?
JA: Sure. COVID had a big impact in CPG overall and, of course, in many things but even if in temporary
terms it changed consumer habits, some of them are probably going to go back. Several of them are probably
going to stay. I think those once-squeezed mainstream brands had a major boost, backed by the principles that
had helped them grow a few decades before. These brands, like the mainstream household packaged foods,
highly processed brands, it grew, they grew on the back its safety, convenience, familiarity on a day-to-day and
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low cost. I believe this trend will not last, so the fact this boost that they had is not long term. It’s going to
wean out. Store brands also had a major boost during COVID, so private label that had already been climbing
for several years up to 20% adoption in the US jumped up significant in adoption across virtually every aisle,
but this trend will widely stay. This is something that we have seen in Canada, we have seen in Europe where
once private label achieves a certain level of acceptability and people try it for the first time and they realise
that it’s reasonably close and sometimes the same as a branded player, people tend to stick to it just because
the cost is so different.
Then, third is home cooking got an obvious boost. Some of it will continue as more people are expected to
continue to work from home and work from home more often. You have double drivers there. You have more
households now working from home compared to what we had before. I believe that is something that at least
is going to have some residual impact for a long time, likely permanent. Also, an increase in work from home
frequency, that is also going to have residual impact for a long time. It’s not going to be the same boost that we
saw in Q2 of last year, but it’s certainly going to be a big boost. So far we’re seeing that we expect, I expect at
least, that about 5% increase on work from home is going to drive home consumption. We’re going to start
lapping that already now in Q2 of this year, so it’s basically a higher tide, not necessarily continuous growth,
but it will help vs what we had before COVID.
[00:06:02]
Q: How might higher unemployment impact Kraft Heinz’s core retail business? It’s assumed that the company
will continue to benefit as customers eat more at home.
JA: Yes. Kraft has a portfolio mix that is largely leaning towards retail and at-home consumption. That
certainly favours Kraft whenever people are at home. If you think about Kraft has a very mainstream portfolio,
like I mentioned, and does relatively well in difficult market conditions. I’m thinking about unemployment not
just as people being at home but also people being tight in cash. In a scenario with high unemployment, I
believe that it’s reasonable to assume that people would be looking to buy more Kraft mac and cheese vs the
USD 12-a-pound Beyond Meat. That’s a reasonable assumption. As things get tight, people try to feed
themselves rather than save the world. Now, that’s in relative terms to other brand players, but the reality is
aggressively priced and acceptable quality private label is here. It’s true. They’re very much pushing for more
store presence. They are a profit centre for retailers that operate with very tight margins overall and see in the
radicalisation and integration of store brands a way to make a little bit more margin. These store brands have
been eating away at CPG share for years and the trend is accelerating. In a scenario where money is tight, store
brands will shine. I think they will shine brighter than mainstream brands.
[00:07:50]
Q: What impact might higher unemployment have on the traditional centre-aisle product categories Kraft
Heinz plays in? Do you think consumers will move away from organic, natural, free-form offerings and return
to the centre aisle for a period of time?
JA: That’s a very possible hypothesis. In unfavourable economic conditions, I would expect centre aisle to do
relatively well. Higher-value-added offerings are likely not going to grow at the same pace, but we must keep
in mind that much of these better-for-you brands are challenger brands. They’re not established brands that
have been here for a while. Like I said, before COVID, 100% of the growth in food came from smaller brands
or smallish brands that were not in the top 25 in the US. New category entrants are eager to compete and gain
space. They have a different set of priorities and value growth more than in-year EBITDA results. This can be a
major challenge for CPGs, especially ones that have shareholders looking for dividends and looking for strong
cash flow and cash flow conversation like Kraft has. It would be a challenge because a lot of these new entrants
are concerned about just taking space, and that’s something to watch. Overall, for retail, I expect that better-
for-you offers, especially ones that are highly priced, are going to feel if we have tight economic conditions. I
do expect that a lot of these challenger brands are going to put a fight. Testing on price might be a difficult
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situation as well.
[00:09:56]
Q: Kraft Heinz has mentioned rising supply chain costs, which is true for most of the industry. How much
room does it have to raise prices before competitors and store brands start taking meaningful market share?
Alternatively, do you think competitors will follow with their own price increases?
JA: Yes, I think the point that you asked there in regards to store brands following is critical for Kraft’s ability
to pass up price. Kraft has had, for the last few years, a fairly aggressive, although I personally question the
effectiveness of broad portfolio price increase, but they have a fairly aggressive pricing policy. Prices have
overall increased substantially in many of Kraft Heinz’s key items across the last 5-7 years. I don’t think Kraft
or most CPGs for that matter have much room to raise prices at this point. Their gross margins are already
much higher than those accepted by challenger brands. The barriers to enter in the category have never been
lower. Access to efficient advertising has never been easier and store brands have never been so good. In most
categories, Kraft competitors are really the private label brands. If you look at the second player on the
categories where Kraft is number one, it’s almost always going to be a private label brand, and in many cases
private label is leading in share in the category. They’re notorious for not following. As early as 2020, Kroger
CEO, Rodney McCullen, was quoted saying that if vendors, and here think about CPG (audio distorts 11.43) as
a vendor to Kroger, if vendors increase price Kroger would not follow and they would try to take market share.
It is true. They have done that.
I do think the biggest challenge is not as much branded players following, that historically has happened,
especially in commodity-driven categories, but store brands following is not a trend that we’ve observed before
unless there are enormous market input conditions that force them to do so. They don’t follow. They almost
have a cost-plus model. The same thing happens with their co-manufacturers. If they don’t have pass-through
price, they’re not going to pass that on to the consumer because they are in a dog-eat-dog fight across stores.
It’s a completely different game for the retailer brands. It can be a very difficult thing. I understand the agenda
from Kraft, and the plan is sound, but it does rely on competitors also being able to pass on that price.
[00:12:55]
Q: Is there any truth to the worry about inflationary pressures? Is input cost rising the way people expect it to
across the industry?
JA: Yes. In my opinion, what I see from (inaudible 13.19) today is this is the reality. There are higher input
costs. You have some, not all, but a lot of commodities are coming in higher. We have transportation costs
coming in higher. We have even warehouse costs coming in higher. Those do squeeze a lot of profit margins.
Now, you need to consider the approach that the brands are going to take in a situation like this. I guarantee
that when you hear a PepsiCo or a Kraft or any large CPG talking about how they intend to pass on those costs
to the retailer and the consumer, there are countless smaller brands that don’t plan on doing so and are going
to talk to retailers about how they should prefer this new challenger brand because they have a better cost with
arguably same or higher quality. It is a very competitive environment. This is not CPG from 20 years ago. The
categories are very polarised, barriers to entry are very low and food tech is truly a big revolution in the
industry. It’s allowing for a lot of innovation. There is truth to supply side cost pressure, but the market forces
are really not favouring faster pricing anymore.
[00:14:50]
Q: Is there anything else we need to consider about Kraft Heinz or the industry as a whole in H2 2021?
Private and confidential 5
JA: Yes, I think overall, it’s important for us to understand that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for
retailers and manufacturers to reset a lot of their create spend, to really take a long time to look at assortment,
to reorganise their shelves. It’s a big shift in the industry that basically wasn’t allowed to happen before. Just
for a little bit of context, retailers normally are granted switch and go through their shelves once or twice a
year per category, and largely the merchandising events that they are executing together with the
manufacturers, so those ads that we see every week, those are set in a calendar that are almost in autopilot and
repeat prior years. Retailers normally just switch the manufacturer that takes on that here and there, but no
large seismic changes happen. Now, for the first time, we have almost an entire quarter where there was very
little activation on a prior year, where the biggest lap of performance, the comp that we’re going to have vs PY,
is not going to be set because of a price point but because of external factors driving consumption. There are
going to be a lot of changes. The things to observe for the rest of the year is did CPG companies lock in efficient
merchandising calendars with retailers. Not only merchandising calendars that are profitable but that achieve
their objectives. A lot of CPG companies are going to be in this to gain market share. They’re going to accept
losing money on the merchandising efforts in order to gain market share.
Did Kraft do that? The other question is as retailers are doing broader category reviews and trying to take a
deeper look at how they’re assorting their categories, how did Kraft and other CPG companies perform in
those category reviews? What are the expectations for distribution down the road. Once, normally there’s a
few months of gap between the acceptances. A lot of category reviews happening now, March, April, how well-
prepared are the category managers for those category reviews and are they going to gain distribution for the
rest of the year? That’s really the big driving force behind performance is going to be how much distribution
can they hold onto or manage to expend. That’s critical. To understand if they’re driving for growth, if they’re
really driving for improving their market share, they should be driving for more shelf presence and more
merchandising presence. That’s something to watch for.
[00:17:54]
Q: How much of Kraft Heinz’s underperformance pre-coronavirus was a reflection of its portfolio positioning,
execution or both? What do you think the key issues were?
JA: I think there is a bit of both but mostly due to its portfolio. Kraft Heinz’s execution was actually very good,
especially when comparing to other CPGs. Casey had a very mainstream portfolio, like I mentioned, pretty
much by design. Essentially, Kraft’s portfolio was the cash-cow brands left over after Kraft Foods split from
Mondelez and left with all the growth brands and international markets. I think that Casey made some bets
that didn’t pay out, mostly, placed based on confidence on the strength of its brands. That proved to be wrong,
but the team in general executed well on those determined strategies. It is just that the brand strength wasn’t
there to back up the strategy. A key example in my opinion would be Kraft cheese pricing policies that we have
saw Kraft cheese as a very strong brand that could demand a premium and pushed for pricing, widening the
gap between Kraft cheese price and private label prices. The team executed very well on that strategy, but it
turned out that the brand could not support such wide price gaps, and what resulted was declining sales after
the pricing action and discontinuation of Kraft cheese in a lot of markets. Today, you can’t find Kraft sliced
cheese anymore, the sliced Kraft natural cheese anymore.
Ultimately, the brand ended up being sold last year. The Kraft Natural Cheese ended up being sold last year,
but it’s one example of good execution of a bet that was placed under the assumption that the brand could
support that, and then market conditions proved that the brand could not. It relies on a mainstream portfolio
of brands, yes, some strategic bets that didn’t pay off. The execution by the team of those strategies was spot-
on. There were other cases, but mostly I’d say 80% was because of the brands. Kraft tried to treat them as
growth brands, when in reality they had been apparently correctly picked during the split between Mondelez
and Kraft as the cash cows and not growth brands. They were supposed to be brands that were milked away.
NH: When you have that pricing dynamic and Kraft Heinz as a brand is not performing well due to the large
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gap, does it not just adapt and cut back on pricing? Why let something sell if you could fix it?
JA: I think, usually, anything that is related to price is not as immediate as we’re lead to think. If you’re
executing a price change, it takes a long time to, especially on large brands. If a Pepsi or a Coca-Cola or a
Budweiser or anything were to execute some broad change in price, it takes a long time for it to execute, to roll
through retailers, for us to be able to see if there is definitive reaction in the market. Kraft did that. There was
a price increase that happened for two years in a row, and the teams start observing that. The results weren’t
coming in in the same way that we expected results to come in, and then there was this big investment back in
merchandising and trying to hang on for distribution. It was just too late. The momentum was already there.
People had already tried store brands. Store brands just started to take off. you look at a Kroger or a Target or
a Walmart where store brands for the natural cheese category just took off. Not necessarily only because Kraft
did so, Kraft did price, but it certainly helped accelerate that store-brand take-off. Basically, Kroger
verticalised, integrated its store-brand production. Kroger today is a large producer of natural cheese.
Walmart is basically following along the same steps and just took off. They have 70% market share in that
category and tremendous ability to dictate prices. The reason why there was not such a quick reaction and a
walkback, one is because a lot of the internal plans are established under the assumption that this pricing
action is going to work, and then people’s targets get tied to it and it becomes just this big endeavour to
change. It’s not as simple as just flip it back. It’s not a quick execution. These machines are very large and
involve hundreds and sometimes thousands of people to activate something, so they don’t move as fast as a
little company or a single retailer.
[00:23:46]
Q: How would you assess Kraft Heinz’s turnaround programme and progress to date? I think it starts in 2021.
You mentioned some of the coronavirus tailwinds are unlikely to stick, but how much might be due to better
execution of the turnaround strategy rather than coronavirus tailwinds?
JA: Let me just say that I think Miguel Patricio is a great leader, has assembled a very strong team. They’re in
a very tight spot with the old yet strong portfolio brands but also with shareholders that are largely interested
in cash out vs growth play, while the industry is in clear growth mode and brands are driving on a land grab
for shelf space. the strategy Kraft has presented, and I believe it does go deeper than what they’ve shown, it’s
sound and well-thought-out but it’s also safe. It’s based on understanding consumer needs, organising
innovation around those insights, doubling up on marketing communication to leverage the brands and
reshaping the organisation around consumers instead of supply chain. All of those make sense to me. They’re
also things that made sense two decades ago. Today, private label is a reality, not just a threat. Challenger
brands are coming in by the dozens. Barriers to entry have never been lower. Retailers have great bargaining
power. Access to efficient advertising doesn’t require multimillion-dollar budgets. Better-for-you trends are a
staple. These are trends that are playing against Kraft. I think Kraft is shaping up on a strategy that is safe. I
think when I see that strategy I am looking at a strategy that is intended not to make Kraft an ancient growth
of the industry. I don’t think that is what this strategy is intended to do.
When I look from the outside, I look at they’re going to stabilise the business. They’re going to be consumer-
oriented, which is a great thing. They’re going to try to drive for positive, modest but consistent financial
results that will satisfy the Kraft investor. That’s what I see from the outside. I think what we’ve seen so far is
less a fruit of that strategy change, because it’s so recent, and more a fruit of COVID impacts. I do think that
the strategy is going to have a positive impact. I think on the leadership side, Miguel has assembled a great
team. I don’t personally know Carlos Abrams-Rivera, leading the US, which really is the bulk of the Kraft
business, but I was very impressed with his background. I think Cory that is leading sales now is extremely
competent and can do a good job. I like the way they’ve restructured around consumers. That is very much
needed. I do think the strategy will work for stabilisation of the business and to drive consistent financial
results. It’s not going to work for making Kraft a growth star. I don’t think anybody should have that
expectation. It’s not going to be a growth star.
It’s going to be they’re fighting really hard to remain in the game and grow with the industry, preserving
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market share and delivering consistent financial results. That’s what I see it will be. On the finance side,
though, I think they’ve done an extremely good decision in putting Paulo Basilio in finance. He is personally
probably one of the best CFOs that I have ever worked with, and he really did a great job stabilising finances
for Kraft, taking the opportunity and executing well on it during the COVID crisis with the cash in flow that
they had. He really managed to get their heads above water. That should help them with the execution going
forward.
[00:27:57]
Q: What do you think about Kraft Heinz’s ability to innovate on new products that are relevant to young
shoppers while also boosting margins and lowering costs?
JA: I think it’s one of their biggest challenges. Large companies like Kraft are very good at line extension and
incremental innovation, but they’re very bad at disruptive innovation. Almost by definition they do not want to
disrupt. Almost always, disruption is somehow going to affect their business and management is not rewarded
for taking risks. They’re usually rewarded for being safe and driving consistency. While a food start-up is
happy to come to market with 20% margins or less and invest heavily to gain market share and shelf space, big
companies tend to be more conservative around margin dilution and portfolio cannibalisation. I think we
should think about KHC innovation in the context of their strengths and their brands. How can those brands
travel around the store? How can their brands play in multiple aisle and participate in established consumer
trends? I wouldn’t be looking for KHC to take large risks and drive new categories from scratch, nor I think it
should be the right thing for them to do for their shareholders. I think what we’re going to see from KHC is a
safe innovation strategy that is going to be looking at established consumer trends that are in place. I would
expect them to jump on established trends a little late but really leverage their assets to be somewhat
successful in those trends.
I would say plant-based right now is all the hype in the food industry. It is being driven from multiple fronts
based on ESG, based on better for you, but very grounded at this point. It is not anymore just a fad. It’s a clear,
established trend. Yes, I would expect KHC, for example, to start diverting more effort of its portfolio towards
an established trend like that. They can be a success. They are not going to disrupt the category. They’re not
going to be the first plant-based cream cheese any more, but if they come up with a cream cheese that is plant-
based under Philadelphia, is it likely to be successful? Yes. It’s probably not going to be the first, but they’re
going to participate in the trends. I like the reorganisation, how they’ve made it. It’s not going to be
revolutionising but it’s going to be better than before and they’re going to be participating in those large,
established consumer trends more efficiently because they’re more consumer-focused. Those are not going to
be margin-accretive to a very large extent. I think especially now that their strengths are lower it’s going to be
difficult for them to come in, especially with this new innovation that requires a ramp-up. To be margin-
accretive there is going to be difficult, so we might see, especially with successful innovation, some margin
dilution overall in percentage terms but accretive in dollar terms. It should be incremental, at least to a
comparative scenario, which is the scenario that somebody takes a sale from them.
[00:31:36]
Q: Kraft Heinz has often been criticised for cutting marketing spend to help improve margins. Marketing
spend was up 11% in 2020 and the company expressed an appetite for further increases. Is this an issue you
think the company is getting to grips with?
JA: Yes, I think this message has been very clear from Miguel from his first few months on the job. Kraft is a
consumer goods company and it needs to talk to its consumers. He asked for more investment in media. More
specifically, not just marketing but in media working dollars, and the team is responding to that. It’s great to
see. I think KHC will continue to drive for more marketing investment with more cultural presence, a more
active voice, and this is a good thing. What is to be seen is if there’s appetite to continue with this strategy
when things get tight, for whatever reason. KHC’s prior marketing costs weren’t all driven simply by strategy
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but often as part of a plan to hit more immediate financial goals. There would be reductions in market spend
during the year trying to hit a quarter goal or an annual goal, an EBITDA target for the year, and then those
got rolled into the future. I think that if the company can withstand the temptation to cut marketing spend to
hit annual targets, and from what I’ve seen and heard from Miguel’s public messages it seems to be the case,
then they might be well-served. However, if they can’t resist that temptation and try to hit the annual target by
cutting marketing, I think they might fall into the same trap.
The message at least is very clear. They want to have a more active voice. They want to be culturally more
present in the conversation. They are part of Americana and they should participate. They should participate
in that. They should continue to drive for marketing investment. I think the team has come to grips with that. I
think it is a much more difficult conversation now to cut marketing to achieve results. I think the leadership
team is more attuned to the bad impacts and especially longer-term impacts that action like that can have.
[00:34:16]
Q: Which brands or categories has Kraft Heinz prioritised the most in marketing spend and investment?
Where do you think it should prioritise marketing spend and investment?
JA: I think they do well. They basically prioritise the investment according to the portfolio roles of the brand.
Basically, what they’re looking for is brands that are divided and grow, energise or stabilise. That’s what they
want to do with each of the brands. The big investment is going to be on the grow and energise. I think they’re
well-served with that. They stabilise. Brands sometimes are more about identifying what is the acceptable level
of profitability and trying to hold onto that line rather than simply push that line forward. They have some
jewels that are incredibly valuable. I think Oscar Mayer is one very resilient brand that continues to have a
perception of quality that is above the rest. I think Philadelphia, the phenomenal brand that travels really well,
that is known for higher quality, incredibly resilient. The Kraft brand on processed cheese, still very, very
strong. Velveeta brand still very, very strong. Then, they have some brands that really have not participated in
conversations where we saw attempts to come back and participate in a brand-new conversation. Failed
attempts, like Maxwell House. I think in terms of identifying what brands should receive prioritisation, like
Philadelphia spending more money on TV and trying to venture into adjacent categories, that is the right thing
to do.
I think that investments behind snacking brands like P3, now I see them sponsoring UFC and trying to be
more present in social media, also are good things. Irreverent brands like Devour trying to participate in a
segment of the conversation around frozen foods also doing a good job. That is a growth brand for Kraft.
They’re doing that assortment of brands fairly well and should continue to do so. Really pay attention to those
big, strong brands that have very good equity, that can still justify a premium, where they can execute the rest
of the strategy behind and continue to invest in them and perhaps look for brands that are not playing an
important role anyone and making different decisions around those brands, like Maxwell House, for example.
[00:37:13]
Q: How agile do you think Kraft Heinz is in e-commerce? How does it compare to competitors? It seems to
have taken the industry by storm.
JA: That’s one thing that Kraft has done fairly well on. The e-commerce centre of excellence for Kraft Heinz
started several years ago. I think it probably started around 2016. They brought some outside talent to ramp it
up and really double that up with a new hire from Amazon around the middle of 2019. For the past five years,
Kraft is the second-largest growth among CPG brands in e-commerce. When I refer to e-commerce here, what
I’m talking about is not direct to consumer. Basically, that’s virtually zero in food sales. It’s really online
purchases executed on Kraft Heinz brands, PepsiCo brands, Smithfield brands, for example. They’re doing a
really good job there. They have tremendous content. They have a really good leadership poise when talking to
the Walmart.coms, the Kroger.coms and Amazon Fresh of the world. They have really good SEO execution.
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They have good brass tack architecture design for the e-commerce channel. They’re doing well. E-commerce
has this significant misconception of the endless shelf, which gives one the notion that there’s unlimited
assortment and that somebody can just list their product at Walmart.com and it’s much easier than having it
at Walmart. In one way, that’s true. You can have your product listed, but reality is that only those first two
rows of pictures truly matter in e-commerce, so it’s actually a much smaller real shelf that matters.
Kraft is very well-equipped to place itself in those first two rows because what is required to place a product on
those two rows is basically mimicking SEO, search engine optimisation. You need to have marketing spend to
grab those first two or three spots that are generally sponsored. Kraft is willing to invest there and they have
the ability to more than smaller, challenger brands. They need to be popular brands that people are searching
for. One of the key things that I think about is Velveeta. I don’t think people even know what to search for if
they’re looking for an alternative to Velveeta. They’re going to look for Velveeta. It’s hard to say it’s going to be
anything else. Even cream cheese. I don’t think a lot of people are going to type cream cheese. Most people are
just going to type Philadelphia. Kraft has a lot of recall on these historical brands. It’s a great thing. Those
legacy brands do have a tremendous awareness. That really helps in e-commerce. They’re positioned well to
surf that wave, and it shows. They’re having better-than-average results in e-commerce, which is a great thing.
The competitor on e-commerce sales continues to be store brands. If you go to a Kroger or a Walmart,
invariably they’re placing their store brand alternatives if not in front right next to those number-one
bestseller CPG products. That’s a challenge that they face. In competitive terms, I think Kraft competes better
on e-commerce than on brick and mortar.
[00:41:12]
Q: Is Kraft Heinz adequately preparing and innovating along with changing consumer preferences towards
health and wellness?
JA: I think it was not. I think that a lot of innovation in the past has not been aggressive enough to really
match the needs of consumers. Consumer trends were shifting very quickly. The drive towards better-for-you
ingredients and processes, the drive towards free from, the drive towards ESG goals and well-supported
brands was there and it was massive in the industry and Kraft wasn’t very equipped to do it. The big problem
that they had is a lot of the brands that even when they tried to be aggressive in pursuing those didn’t have the
recall that was attached to those features. What comes to mind is Capri Sun. Capri Sun is this tremendously
successful brand of kids aseptic packaged juice. the brand is known for being highly processed, and that’s the
perception that general public has. Honest Kids came in with a fairly highly processed juice as well and was
taking the market by storm, stealing market share and Kraft just fought back with a really good product. They
had both a Roarin’ Waters version of Capri Sun and also an organic version of Capri Sun. It didn’t take. The
organic version didn’t take because people weren’t taking the time to find out that Capri Sun is now organic.
They didn’t care much for that. That’s how I saw the trends. Honest Kids had the perception of being a more
organic brand, of being an all-natural brand and was really capturing that slice of the market, while Capri Sun
had the perception of being processed, so people didn’t care much about buying the organic version of Capri
Sun.
It would be the equivalent of buying organic Coca-Cola or organic Pepsi. It didn’t come to mind. If you’re
really going organic, that’s not what you’re going to buy. They had the challenge on the existing brand
perception. It has been a staple of processed food for so long that it’s hard for them to flip. They were not
innovating, and largely because the innovation they had out there had not been as efficient and they were not
getting as much credit as I think they deserved because the product was really good-quality but they were not
getting as much credit, so they weren’t doing as much there. There was a reason why they weren’t doing as
much there. I hope that now with the new organisation and a more in-depth understanding of market trends
and a more consumer-centric organisation that they can crack that code and come to market with more
relevant innovation, a bit more aggressive innovation and they’re going to be able to capture some of those
trends.
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[00:44:38]
Q: What are your thoughts on Kraft Heinz’s decision to sell the Planters business, given it is a very iconic and
strong brand?
JA: Yes, when I look at the Planters sales in my mind, that was a very good decision to sell it. The Planters
business, yes it’s true it is an iconic brand, but it had a better strategic fit elsewhere. That’s how I see it. It is a
brand that was very challenged in terms of pricing power. It was very challenged in terms of distribution. It’s
not a brand that would really achieve its full potential under Kraft. When I look at is the brand valued more
now, elsewhere? Yes, I think so. Kraft Heinz was trading today at roughly 10 times EBITDA, up from eight
times a few months ago, and they got 13 times EBITDA for Planters and really put that cash to work, I think.
They’re going to be able to deleverage the company to secure better help, financial help for the company and
power the rest of the portfolio. I think that was a good decision. Could Planters produce the kind of the return
that they can if it remained in the portfolio? I don’t think Planters could be a 13 times EBITDA brand in the
Kraft portfolio. It’s an old, mainstream, overpriced brand, very commoditised category, had been losing
distribution and market share for a long time, year after year, with very little hope for growth.
Even the big investments in Super Bowl. For almost three years in a row, they set aside USD 5m to put to work
along Super Bowl and reinvested significantly in Nascar sponsorships and a lot of advertising. The brand just
wasn’t taking. Now, if there is a better chance for it being partners with Skippy and growing on that front and
someone else is willing to pay 13 times EBITDA for the brand, I think that that’s a good thing and allows Kraft
to improve its financial performance and focus more on growing the rest of the portfolio. I think that was a
good strategy overall.
[00:47:18]
Q: How does the ROI for marketing spend change within e-commerce compared to retail? What are the
challenges associated with digital campaigns?
JA: Yes, I think when you think about ROI on e-commerce, one of the things is there’s a lot of measurement
but also a lot of uncertainty, which is for me a funny thing to say. Usually you try to measure things to gain
confidence around it, but e-commerce, there are so many variables that it’s a lot of uncertainty around it, the
channels are not very well-measured, it’s always going through a third party, so you lose a bit of their
connection between action and effect. Now, it is a force to be dealt with in the industry. It is seen as a trend
that is here to stay. I agree with that. I think it is a permanent shift. People are going to be shopping more
online, so when I look at the ROI there, the measurement is for me a lesser concern vs the requirement of
having a strong presence in e-commerce. It’s having that communication directly with the consumer. Kraft
does a really good job there. They are very strong in e-commerce presence. They’re really able to activate
strongly online. What is a question mark for me is the activation through the retailers. The retailers own the
scarce resource. When you think about competitive strategy overall, people that own the scarce resource are
going to receive the rents. If Kroger owns the shelf online and they own the access to it, they’re really charging
you for the access to that shelf.
The ROI is borderline zero because the way that Kroger is going to position it is, “If you want to make USD 1,
you’ve got to pay me USD 0.99.” Then, make a penny. At least you make a penny. You’re not just losing it
because your competitor is going to pay otherwise. It’s a difficult proposition. I don’t think e-commerce, in the
set-up that it is today, is necessarily more profitable for the CPG companies because it comes in with
incremental costs and a larger charge around marketing spend. It is not a choice. I think they have to play. It is
very similar to slotting fees in the beginning of a selling cycle. Oftentimes it’s not a choice. It’s a cost that they
have to play. If e-commerce is a reality and you have to go through Instacart, Amazon, Kroger.com,
Walmart.com, Target.com, Gopuff.com, if that’s a reality, you have to play it. It might not be as profitable as
the brick-and-mortar channel, but it’s certainly a channel that you have to participate in. It’s not as profitable
comparative to the prior scenario, but you don’t have a choice. That prior scenario of only going brick and
mortar is shrinking and ceasing to exist.
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[00:51:00]
Q: How big an issue might rising packaging and transportation costs be to Kraft Heinz’s turnaround strategy?
JA: I don’t think that is necessarily the crux of the issue. I don’t think that will be their problem alone. It’s
going to be an industry issue. I think if any company is prepared to mitigate as much as possible input costs,
both transportation and packaging, if anyone is ready to mitigate as much as possible, that’d be Kraft.
Competitors are going to struggle more than they to absorb those cots. The question is how much of it can they
pass on? It’s not a Kraft problem, it’s an industry problem. I do think it’s going to be a margin squeeze for the
industry, not for Kraft. I think the Kraft team, the operations team is really good and the finance team is really
good. They have tremendous visibility in terms of management. It’s really not going to be an issue for them
that’s going to be a problem. It’s just managing the expectations around it. I do think that as input costs rise,
passing through those costs to consumer, it is going to be a challenge and a very competitive environment, but
it’s going to be a challenge for everybody. If other companies are willing to eat up the margin impact more
than Kraft is, they might steal some market share from Kraft and consequently steal some distribution down
the road. Its symbology just keeps rolling because if you don’t maintain your item performance, if you’re not
turning fast on the shelf, the retailers are going to replace your item. Retailers just don’t have any more brand
loyalty these days.
It’s not Walmart building a house of brands like they used to in the ’90s. Walmart doesn’t care. Kroger doesn’t
care. That’s been my experience. They’re looking for on-shelf productivity, and they’re going to replace you if
you’re trying to pass on costs and your competitors are not or their store brands are not. They’re going to
attack that. They’re going to take market share. I think it’s going to be an industry squeeze on margin if input
costs continue to rise. If anybody is equipped to mitigate as much as possible of that squeezy margin, it’s going
to be Kraft. It really comes down to are they willing to accept or will they force their hand, try to pass it
through? In some instances, I’m sure they would be successful. I think strong brands like Heinz Ketchup or
Philadelphia can certainly pass it through. Other brands that are commodity brands, like Maxwell House
coffee, probably will not be able to pass it through and they’re going to have a margin squeeze there. If I look at
the total portfolio, I think they have more leaning towards the commoditised front where they’re going to
struggle to pass through the price.
[00:54:01]
Q: What role is the environmental impact associated with the product, manufacturing and distribution
playing in the supply chain dynamics?
JA: It is an important role. I think consumers are getting more and more attuned to the ESG commitments
behind their companies. I just saw an announcement this morning about Pilgrim’s. Pilgrim’s Pride, a poultry
company, making a very aggressive sustainability goal. They issued a bond that is attached to sustainability.
Yesterday, if I’m not mistaken, JBS announced that. It’s a meat company, and they committed to being carbon
neutral in the next two decades. People are, from several aspects of the industry, really driving sustainability,
social responsibility, and consumers are responding to that, retailers are responding to that. It comes with a
cost. It comes with a cost, and I think management is expecting that. It also comes with a benefit and it’s
becoming table stakes. That is yet another driver that is going to come to squeeze margins. It’s squeezing
margins and they are the condition for your survival as a brand. I do think that it’s going to hit home pretty
soon in terms of the requirement for sustainability. People are seeing that climate change is a reality. People
are seeing that there is a necessary change that needs to be lead by these companies, and people are going to
vote with their wallets, they’re going to vote with their feet and it’s going to be something that brands have to
do. I think Kraft has an opportunity to be more forceful in responding to that. The ESG campaign for Kraft, in
my opinion, has been shy over the last few years.
Very focused on fighting hunger, which is a very noble cause, but I think, given the size of the company, it can
do more and I think consumers expect it to do more and they’re looking for it to do more. The big challenge
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there is how much can the brands really absorb that, can be known for driving social responsibility and how
much credit would consumers give them for it? I don’t think it’s going to be a boost in sales. I think it’s going
to be table stakes. The question remains. If management is willing to let margin dollars go away in an attempt
to preserve distribution to preserve sales or if they’ll continue to think that what they sold last year is an
entitlement and that is what they should come to and everything that they do has to be incremental to the
prior year’s sales, not just to maintain it. That, for me, is a big question mark. I hope that they see it as
competition is doing it, we have to do it. It’s the right thing to do and move forward with that agenda. That’s
certainly the vibe that I get from the new company management, and I hope that they drive it that way so that
the company can continue to move forward in a sustainable way.
[00:57:26]
Q: What do you think is the most material risk in Kraft Heinz’s supply chain when it comes to ESG? Is it
securing its supply chain and making sure labour practices are going well?
JA: I think Kraft is a fantastic company in terms of labour practices. I don’t think that is a large risk for them.
I think packaging is a big question mark. They have a lot of ways to go in terms of sustainable packaging
sourcing. They have a lot of ways to go in mitigating carbon footprint on its supply chain. They have a lot of
ways to go in the driving sustainably sourced ingredients. I think those are the risk factors around supply
chain. I think in terms of safety and productivity, the 3G management group did a fantastic drop in driving
that for Kraft. I think all of those are very attached to productivity, and they did a really good job driving that.
Food safety was of the highest importance and still is, I believe, for Kraft Foods, for Kraft Heinz. I do think
that in terms of ESG, the risks lie on being able to source sustainably sourced ingredients and mitigating the
carbon footprint of its global supply chain and in being able to drive away unsustainable packaging from its
supply chain. That is basically plastic, (inaudible 59.22).
[00:59:27]
NH: Let me close by saying thank you, Jorge, for your input. Clients, if you would like to speak to Jorge in a
private call or meeting, please let your relationship manager know. Thank you again for joining Third Bridge
Forum's Interview today, this now concludes our meeting. Goodbye.
JA: Thank you.
Transcription ends at 00:59:42 of the recorded material
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