North America Condiments & Sauces – H2 2021 Update –
17 June 2021
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Specialist:
Title:
Moderator: Nyree Hinton (NH), Third Bridge Sector Analyst
John Dicecco (JD)
Former EVP, Sales, Customer, Category & Shopper Insights, Canada at McCormick & Co Inc
Agenda:
1. Consumption trends across condiments and sauces
2. Supply chain constraints and raw material inflation
3. Innovation within retail grocery and brand development
4. Consolidation and M&A opportunities
Contents
Q: Can you give an overview of the condiments and sauces industry? What are the market’s main sub-
categories, growth drivers and top players?
Q: Could you outline 2-3 pre-coronavirus trends in the sauces and spices industry? How has the pandemic
impacted or altered those trends?
Q: Do you think the rise of retail grocery and home cooking due to coronavirus offsets some of the
seasonality you alluded to?
Q: How sticky is the increased profitability you mentioned as the industry returns to being more seasonal
where players are cutting prices to win market share?
Q: What sub-categories do you think have the highest margins? How do you assess the strategy of having a
higher-margin product, building a significant presence and focusing on that one sub-category vs spreading
thinly and being exposed to other players such as Kraft?
Q: You named some of the top hot sauce players. Who are the dominant players in dry goods? Is Kraft still
the major player?
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Q: How has consumer behaviour shifted volumes during your experience across the industry’s sub-
categories?
6
Q: Do strong players such as McCormick and Kraft strategically focus on dominating warmer environments,
such as the Midwest, California and other hot regions outside of the US such as South America? How do you
assess that focus on areas with consistent sales and the ability to dominate vs seeking volatility?
6
Q: Could you elaborate on how big firms realised they were struggling to appeal to health and wellness-
centric customers? Every other category with healthier products seems to have experienced sizeable gains in
consumer demand, whether it’s plant-based meat or sugar reduction in beverages.
7
Q: Could you discuss the channel dynamics? We touched on grocery. How do big players consider areas such
7
as foodservice and private label? Can you outline the overall distribution dynamic?
Q: Have any retailers aggressively tried to enter the market with private label offerings, given the low
penetration rate? What are the barriers to entry in the sauces and condiments category and across its sub-
categories?
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Q: Could you discuss Kraft’s influence in the condiments and sauces industry, including market share shifts?
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Has Kraft lost share to new entrants?
Q: Can you outline McCormick’s positioning? How did it become the market leader and a profitable player in
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such a highly competitive, low-barrier-to-entry industry?
Q: Could you describe domestic demand for ethnic spices, given you referenced the rise in ethnic
opportunities? Can brands take advantage of that demand in their home markets or is that not really
considered?
Q: How innovative is the condiments, sauces and spices industry? Is innovation not really a big focus?
Q: How would a companies such as Kraft and McCormick consider marketing when rolling out a new
product, given the low margin, volume and price point they typically get for them?
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Q: What flexibility do players have to mitigate costs and improve operational efficiency? Where do you think
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there are opportunities to do so throughout the supply chain?
Q: Can you outline the D2C approach? Condiments, sauces and spices seem lightweight and easily portable,
suggesting low freight costs.
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Q: Could you briefly summarise the industry’s recent consolidation?
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Q: Could you elaborate on McCormick being more of a flavour company? Where are there opportunities to
leverage synergies between flavours and expand in similar categories to condiments and sauces?
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Q: What is your 6-12-month industry outlook? How do you expect the market share split between
foodservice and retail grocery to evolve?
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North America Condiments & Sauces – H2 2021 Update
Transcription begins at 00:00:02 of the recorded material
NH: Welcome to Third Bridge Forum’s Interview entitled North America Condiments & Sauces – H2 2021
Update. I’m Nyree Hinton, and I’ll be facilitating today’s interview with Mr John Dicecco, former EVP Sales,
Customer, Category & Shopper Insights Canada at McCormick Inc.
John, before we get started with today’s Interview, please state I agree or I disagree to the following statement:
You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any such
information, or any other information which is confidential, during this interview.
JD: I agree.
NH: Thank you. Could you start with an overview of your background?
JD: As you said, I was VP Sales, Category, Consumer, Shopper Insights for McCormick, so I was also involved
in the sales and marketing side within the McCormick can operations. I do have experience in the US, from a
former role but also within McCormick, but more importantly, I was Chair of our Global Sales Council, and
also a member of our global marketing team.
[00:01:23]
Q: Can you give an overview of the condiments and sauces industry? What are the market’s main sub-
categories, growth drivers and top players?
JD: The category, it’s not a new and emerging category. It’s been around for a while, defined by ROI in
Nielsen, so obviously goes into condiments and sauces. From a broader perspective, condiments, you’re
getting into everything from mustard, ketchup, mayonnaise, relish, barbecue sauces and other sauces. From a
sub-category perspective, specifically if you get down into barbecue sauces, in North America, the dominant
players are McCormick, who have recently purchased, a couple of years ago, Stubb’s. As well, they have the La
Grille brands, and they have now French’s and Frank’s forays into barbecue sauces, as well. Our main
competitors, obviously, there’s a lot of fragmentation. Depending on the channel, Costco, they have their
rotational in-and-outs, everything from Budweiser to Guy Fieri. They also have carried some Kraft brands.
Traditional retail, typically Kraft Heinz is the dominant player. Of course, you have McCormick, Lawry’s,
Stubb’s and some other regional brands that they have, but their newest foray is the new dimension of Frank’s.
You’re kind of getting into French’s mustard, being what I call a cross between mustard and barbecue. The
same is happening with Frank’s.
You’re starting to see that with Unilever and some of the other ones, where you’re starting to see sub-
categories cross together, whether it be barbecue sauce and mayo together or things like that. You have the hot
sauces, which is dominated by Frank’s, Cholula, which is a recent purchase by McCormick, and as well, you
have a lot of fragmentation. Nando’s would be the next big player in the hot sauce category, and then, of
course, you have Steak Sauce with A1. From a North American perspective, a brand that has really come out of
nowhere over the last five years has been Sweet Baby Ray’s, with great success. Of course, in the independent
level and the health food level, you have a lot of fragmentation, you have a lot of smaller players. Of course, the
major player is Unilever and, as well, Kraft Heinz. Third player in that is McCormick. Kraft is tonnage-driven.
I think COVID has helped the category reset to be less on deal. Typically, it sold a lot on deal, so the percent
sold on TPI is very high, but as we get into sauce and barbecue sauces, I think it depends on how far down the
sub-categories you want to go. I would include hot sauce in that category, as well.
Private and confidential 3
[00:04:35]
Q: Could you outline 2-3 pre-coronavirus trends in the sauces and spices industry? How has the pandemic
impacted or altered those trends?
JD: The category has a short window, so of course, the category kicks off with what we call daylight savings.
The reason it kicks off with daylight savings is because people will spend more time outside barbecuing. They
don’t have to barbecue quote, unquote in the dark, although the US market is vast and you have the southeast,
southwest, and even more temperate climate in the northwest. It is very much climate-driven. Even those with
temperate climates, when you have darkness at around six o’clock, people tend to cook indoors more and
barbecue less and less. It’s also more of a social category, in that, if you look at the peak times, it is a short
window, typically from May to September. Sales dramatically drop off after September. A lot of the
promotions are around long weekends and also go with proteins, as obviously, retailers look for the larger
shopping basket. With that short window, Memorial Day and July are your two top time frames. Outside of
that, Father’s Day would be third, Labor Day weekend, but after Labor Day weekend, after those three periods,
the category and the sales really do decline.
What ended up happening is Kraft would become very, very aggressive early and set the tone for really
depressed price points. Barbecue sauces, they really suffered from sales with a high percent of TPR, so
temporary price reduction. During the peak time periods, it’s always on promotion. It will either be an in-store
feature or ad. Then, of course, you have the club offerings that offer their promotions, their size discounts,
their size savings. With that, the competition gets aggressive, they get aggressive early. All of your sales are
going to happen in those two time periods, all within four weeks apart, so getting the ad features are
important, getting everything in place. Kraft always looked at the category as a tonnage play vs a dollar play, so
it would be lower margins, high tonnage, more so in Canada, also because of some challenges with shelving
and date coding and shelf life. You saw anywhere from USD 0.99, which was the common feature price point,
to two for USD 1 if they had to clear out inventory at the end of the year, so very, very depressed promotional
prices during the peak periods. Obviously, more sales at a regular price happened outside the peak period, but
it would be such a low percentage of sales. It’s a very competitive category, very feature-driven, and is well-
dominated by Kraft. It’s just their go-to-market mentality.
[00:07:50]
Q: Do you think the rise of retail grocery and home cooking due to coronavirus offsets some of the seasonality
you alluded to?
JD: From a consumption standpoint, it doesn’t, but I think, more appropriately, what COVID did as an
advantage to the market, to the condiment category, is it got it out of the sales cycle of having to give it away
for Memorial Day and your Independence Day long-weekend ads. There has been inflation. Obviously, freight
has been a big factor, raw materials has been a big factor. You have seen inflation because of COVID in all
categories, and you have seen it in barbecue sauce. Inflation became a little bit through price increases, but
more importantly, just the repeal of promotional dollars. What you saw because of COVID is anything that
went onto a grocery shelf would sell, retailers went to more in-store features than deep discounts, deep
giveaways, and they were able to do a little bit of a level set to be less volume-focused and more profit-focused.
There’s been less deep discounting because of COVID, especially last year in 2020, and I would say that the
category became more profitable for both the retailer and the manufacturer. Kraft Heinz just suck all profit out
of the category and go by tonnage, but with COVID, it allowed everybody to reset, and barbecue sauce as a
category benefited from that reset, as well.
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[00:09:26]
Q: How sticky is the increased profitability you mentioned as the industry returns to being more seasonal
where players are cutting prices to win market share?
JD: I’ve always been an admirer of Sweet Baby Ray’s. They came out five years ago, good product, good casing
product. I think one of the challenges with Heinz, and I think where Sweet Baby Ray’s and where McCormick
is hoping with Stubb’s, is that it’s just a better quality product. One of the things with Heinz, they’re very
deflationary but they cut costs, and some of the cost, it is the product quality, so I would say that the product
quality has really gone downhill. Also, barbecue sauces, from year to year, depending on the flavours and the
sub-categories, you can get some variability depending on what protein is on sale. For example, although it’s
less of a player and a smaller brand, A1 Steak Sauce, steaks are going through the roof right now, so it’s
obviously depending on the protein, depending on the different brands where they play better. Lawry’s play
better in marinades, which is chicken and pork, whereas Kraft tend to play better in steaks, and other proteins,
as well. Hot sauces are more steady, so you don’t have as much price volatility, but again, as a sub-category, it
has a lot smaller sales. The three brands dominate that are Frank’s, Cholula, and then, of course, there’s
Nando’s. Those are the three.
As far as moving forward, everybody enjoyed the benefits of more profitability and inflation and have it stick.
It’s going to depend on Kraft’s view of the category and their view of the business. For years, Kraft has always
been volume-driven, and that set the tone for the feature pricing. They have a new executive team. I think 3G
has secured all of the savings they can, and if they decide to go for profit, the writing is on the wall that they
can do that. The million-dollar question is going to be, what’s their DNA? What do they tend to do, and how do
they tend to play? They tend to be aggressive. In my old role, I could always count on Kraft going to war. They
lock up the season, they lock into the promotions, their volume, they go to war. COVID changed that, so we’ll
see now if it sticks.
[00:12:07]
Q: What sub-categories do you think have the highest margins? How do you assess the strategy of having a
higher-margin product, building a significant presence and focusing on that one sub-category vs spreading
thinly and being exposed to other players such as Kraft?
JD: Hot sauces obviously are smaller in size and scale, but they have more profitability. The profitability,
these are all publicly traded companies, so you just look at the retail that they’re selling for. If, for retail, you’re
selling USD 0.99 every day, they expect to make 30 margin [sic]. If you’re paying under USD 1 for the product,
just work back the net margins. Without having any insider information, you can quickly look back and see the
profitability of the brand or the sub-category for the manufacturer. When you get higher retails, when you
start to get into USD 2.99 and things like that, although hot sauces are not as big a category as barbecue
sauces, obviously, higher-margin dollars, because you can charge more on the consumer and the retailer. Dry
blends, anytime you get into a Montreal Steak Sauce, the dry category itself, regardless of who plays in it,
whether it be McCormick or B&G foods, tends to have a lower cost of goods, easier shelf life. As well, they’re
able to charge the consumer and the retailer more, so a higher gross margin percentage and a higher gross
margin dollar, typically, from my opinion, from a category perspective, not any individual supplier.
[00:14:01]
Q: You named some of the top hot sauce players. Who are the dominant players in dry goods? Is Kraft still the
major player?
JD: No, it’s actually McCormick. McCormick is a major player in dry. You have McCormick, you have some
regional players, you have some restaurant chains or restaurant brands, and then you have competitors like
B&G Foods. Tone’s is one. When you get into dry, people make their own blends. The two more popular blends
Private and confidential 5
are Montreal Chicken and Montreal Steak. Those aren’t exclusive to McCormick. Those are obviously formulas
and formats that other companies use as well, and restaurant brands and whatnot, but they are, as a category,
typically more profitable for suppliers and retailers.
[00:15:00]
Q: How has consumer behaviour shifted volumes during your experience across the industry’s sub-categories?
JD: It’s different if you’re looking at it from a dollar unit perspective. From a dollar, it’s always been
depressed, so if there have been any dollar gains, it’s been through inflation, not so much consumption.
Consumption has remained relatively flat. The interesting part with COVID and when we come out of COVID
is whether or not we go into a recession or not. Will that change people’s eating habits in different cuts of beef,
going to people eating more chuck beef or more ground beef, make more burgers, less steaks? What’s the price
of pork vs chicken? It’s very much related to the protein in the overall basket, but typically, it’s just the holiday
season. You can line up your promotions. That’s where you’re going to sell 40% of all your volume, is in that
four-week period.
It’s dependent on some other outside factors, as well, like weather. Again, when you look at condiments,
barbecue sauces, you’ve got baseball games, you’ve got weekends with parties and kids parties, and someone’s
got a pool and they’ve got 10 people in it. Now that COVID is in the rearview mirror, hopefully, those types of
consumption activities will happen. When you have good weather, you have more of those activities and
obviously have increased consumption. There is a strong correlation, like beverages, between rain, rain on
weekends, cold weather and barbecue sauce consumption. There is a direct correlation. If you want to
compare years to years, you could have a year that’s been cold and rainy in a region where you’re going to have
low barbecue sales. If you have hot dry weather, you tend to have higher barbecue sales, because barbecue
sauce is selling as a complement to the main proteins that people are eating and buying when socialising.
[00:17:04]
Q: Do strong players such as McCormick and Kraft strategically focus on dominating warmer environments,
such as the Midwest, California and other hot regions outside of the US such as South America? How do you
assess that focus on areas with consistent sales and the ability to dominate vs seeking volatility?
JD: I can’t speak for one specific manufacturer. I can speak for the industry. It’s looked at on a national basis.
All the national players look at North America first and then South America. Obviously, the US is the big
market. Canada is a very much smaller player, 10% of the US. As far as the US market, everyone treats it from
a national perspective. In other words, come September, no one is focusing on warmer weather or warmer
climates. Typically, even where there’s more temperate weather, once September comes along, everyone’s
thinking fall and everyone’s thinking Thanksgiving and apple pie, and there’s less barbecue going on. It’s just
as the consumer activity softens itself. Everyone’s national. The national players have gone into organic, non-
GMO. Obviously, there’s that speciality channel, where there are some small regional players that are trying to
speak to that consumer. It’s actually not a big sub-category at all, when you look at organic barbecue sauces,
condiments. The big brands, like B&G Foods with Mrs Dash or Kraft barbecue sauces, McCormick, they’ve
been having trouble getting the credibility to the consumer when it comes to more of those health speciality
foods. When people think of healthy foods and barbecue and condiments, they just don’t add up, and they
represent just a very small fraction of the category.
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[00:19:15]
Q: Could you elaborate on how big firms realised they were struggling to appeal to health and wellness-centric
customers? Every other category with healthier products seems to have experienced sizeable gains in
consumer demand, whether it’s plant-based meat or sugar reduction in beverages.
JD: It has not touched condiments, barbecue sauces, at all, I guess because people put so little on their meal.
They have a burger, you’re just putting a dollop on, unless you’re really passionate about your lifestyle that
way. If someone can get high ROI, they also will confirm it just hasn’t translated into growth. The health and
wellness space, the non-GMO, the clean labels, that hasn’t translated yet into this category.
NH: Not even for spices?
JD: No.
[00:20:28]
Q: Could you discuss the channel dynamics? We touched on grocery. How do big players consider areas such
as foodservice and private label? Can you outline the overall distribution dynamic?
JD: Private label is becoming better and is gaining in share, but if you look at the average private label
penetration, when you look at wholesale penetration of private label barbecue sauces, again, it’s very small. It’s
a very affordable category for any household to enter. You’re talking about a couple of bucks. Especially when
it’s on promotion, you get two for five or two for four throughout the US. It’s not a big investment on the
consumer. Because it’s just such a low range, such a low investment, for the consumer, it’s easy to enter, but
again, consumption is tied to, typically, parties or kids’ events, or weekends in the summertime barbecuing.
It’s a very short window.
[00:21:43]
Q: Have any retailers aggressively tried to enter the market with private label offerings, given the low
penetration rate? What are the barriers to entry in the sauces and condiments category and across its sub-
categories?
JD: I think the barrier to entry is just that it’s not a growing category. Retailers will invest in the space or
invest in the promotions when it matters, that’s Memorial Day and Independence Day. Outside of that, it’s
something that they like to keep along the main strategies that they have for the total category. Barbecue
sauces are not a traffic driver. They’re usually a complement. They’ll typically go on heavier promotion for
Memorial Day and Independence Day and Father’s Day, but outside of that, more in-store features and
whatnot and part of a larger, event-based consumption. In other words, you’re buying barbecue sauces, hot
dog buns, hamburger buns, some proteins. There are some regional nuances as far as Texas Slow & Low,
different barbecue methods with charcoal and all that, but really, at the end of the day, it doesn’t translate a lot
to the category.
When you’re looking at the larger category, such as condiments, so if you looked at mustard or you looked at
ketchup, it is a fraction of those two sub-categories in themselves. We’re not talking huge volume. You’re
talking a very specialised product twice a year, very much affected by weather and daylight savings. The
volume is not as smooth on a 52-week basis. Again, the organic, clean ingredient hasn’t penetrated, or hasn’t
manifested in this category at all. In the beverage world, we call it belly fill, and Kraft dominates it. Kraft gets
to the consumers’ homes right away. Daylight savings is when you start to see the ads hit. They fill up the
pantry, and obviously, and they want to be there for the baseball games and the soccer games and the home
parties and whatnot. Again, the idea is to get in the pantry early and stock up that pantry early, because it’s
such a short window. To use an analogy, it’s turkey at Thanksgiving.
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[00:24:19]
Q: Could you discuss Kraft’s influence in the condiments and sauces industry, including market share shifts?
Has Kraft lost share to new entrants?
JD: They’ve had challenges, and they obviously have a foodservice division who do very well. Like all main
manufacturers, they have an ebb and flow with Costco depending on the vision or the region at the time, I
think because they were typically heavily promoted at traditional retail, where the bulk of sales does come
from the retail channel, your traditional bricks and mortar. The health channel again does not represent a
large opportunity or large sales in this category, as well as club. It’s a very small part of the club portfolio, and
you see that just even within the representation at the clubs. Again, who I think has made better inroads has
been Sweet Baby Ray’s. The challenge for the national manufacturers is, how do they be all things to all
channels? If you become overdeveloped in one channel, how does it affect you in another? One emerging
channel has been dollar stores and the role that they play, as well, because now what you’re starting to see is
dollar stores carry barbecue sauces and whatnot. The main players, Kraft obviously has the volume, they set
the pricing, they’re very aggressive, they believe in tonnage. Again, for smaller manufacturers, unfortunately, it
hasn’t translated into club as an alternative, it hasn’t translated into the health and wellness channel as an
alternative. Really, the majority of sales again are at traditional grocery two times a year, Memorial Day and
Independence Day.
[00:26:23]
Q: Can you outline McCormick’s positioning? How did it become the market leader and a profitable player in
such a highly competitive, low-barrier-to-entry industry?
JD: Obviously, this is within their public domain. McCormick sees themselves as a flavour company, so
they’re not limited to any one type of product or portfolio or format or form. They have flavour in terms of
Stubb’s, they have La Grille as dry, they have Montreal Steak, Montreal Chicken, they have Frank’s, hot sauce
that’s used as a condiment and used to make sauces or whatnot. They see themselves as a flavouring company,
and then, depending on the occasion, what flavours people want. I think an emerging category, and it’s a small
sub-set of condiments but more in the larger sauce arena, has been more ethnic sauces, definitely growing
more in Canada but also, I think, in the US. I think that’s probably where the next blue ocean is going to be, in
sauces and flavours that have more of an international appeal, whether it be soy-based or Korean barbecue-
based, Indian sauces or Indian flavours that can go to a barbecue, tandoori and whatnot. The national players,
it’s too small of a market for them to really go in. I think that’s where a smaller player will develop and grow,
and then, when it becomes a size that’s worth looking at or investing, Kraft or McCormick will either buy an
existing company or start it from scratch. They have a hard time starting from scratch, just like all larger
consumer packaged goods companies getting into a niche, so they most typically would probably buy
somebody.
[00:28:18]
Q: Could you describe domestic demand for ethnic spices, given you referenced the rise in ethnic
opportunities? Can brands take advantage of that demand in their home markets or is that not really
considered?
JD: Now you’re getting into cooking and you’re getting into flavours for cooking, and that can come in
different forms. Typically, when you talk barbecue sauces, especially in the US, they’re occasion-driven. You’re
going to barbecue for a lot of people and you want a flavour, so you tend to go barbecue sauce. When you say
ethnic spices, you’ve got some yoghurt-based rubs that go on chicken and different Indian flavours or whatnot,
Private and confidential 8
so it may not be for a barbecue, maybe for other forms of cooking, stovetop, different things. More of the
ethnic sauces can be used in addition to barbecue, but their uses tend to be more for just general cooking,
whereas barbecue sauces are generally used for barbecuing. Typically, someone will go on a stovetop, cook a
piece of chicken and then flavour it with a barbecue sauce. Same with Asian sauces. People could barbecue and
then you add it on top, an Indian or Asian sauce. Consumers are starting to use it that way, but it’s mostly used
with stovetop cooking. When you look at the different sauces and you expand the definition to include other
sub-categories, I think that’s where you’ll see ethnic continue to grow, especially in Canada and in pockets of
the US, pockets like Houston or San Francisco or whatnot. US is, though, still very much Hispanic-driven. For
most labour profiles, so you get more of your habaneros or things like that. More of the international sauces
play a role in Canada, just because of the immigration patterns.
[00:30:38]
Q: How innovative is the condiments, sauces and spices industry? Is innovation not really a big focus?
JD: It’s not a focus. Companies will call it innovation for their stock reports, but it’s really just line extensions.
You take a hot sauce and it comes in a liquid form, and now you’re going to have it in a thicker form, cut it with
mayo so it’s not as spicy. That’s not innovation. That’s probably what you’ve seen in the last little while, what I
call a crossing of sub-categories, taking a barbecue sauce and a mayo. A good example is Kraft makes the
McDonald’s sauce, just having it as a topping, not a traditional barbecue sauce. There’s been more like a cross-
section of sauces, mayo, barbecue, those sorts of things. That’s probably been the innovation that’s happened.
I don’t consider that innovation. From a packaging standpoint, there’s been the migration towards plastic,
away from bottle. Bottle obviously has some consumer limitations, very heavy, and the trend has been to go
towards plastic. There are still some glass competitors out there, more in the speciality line, especially on the
hot sauce line. This is a category that’s typically not had what you would define as innovation.
[00:32:19]
Q: How would a companies such as Kraft and McCormick consider marketing when rolling out a new product,
given the low margin, volume and price point they typically get for them?
JD: They’re not marketing anymore. You don’t see TV commercials. You maybe have some FSIs or some
social media here and there, but the extensions come out under the larger brand names, and then, by coming
out under larger brand names, they benefit from that halo effect of the brand. Kraft, I forget what they called
their McDonald’s sauce. It was a burger sauce. Kraft came out with their burger sauce, and it’s still licenced
Kraft. They don’t come out with a unique sub-name. Because it falls under the Kraft umbrella, they won’t do
anything specific other than listing fees or investment fees. For a general marketing perspective, it falls under
the umbrella of the brand. They’re able to take advantage of that. One of the challenges for the category is that
units have always been flat. It’s always just been a more dollar-driven or price-driven category. There really
hasn’t been a lot of excitement to the category. Different regional players try to be more profitable and try to
leverage the profitability, but again, Kraft’s go-to-market and their business model is low costs, high market
share. COVID was able to make the high market share not as promotionally driven, but at the end of the day,
after your Independence Day promotions, the category is going to start to decline. You’ve got a short window
with all your sales.
[00:34:27]
Q: What flexibility do players have to mitigate costs and improve operational efficiency? Where do you think
there are opportunities to do so throughout the supply chain?
Private and confidential 9
JD: It’s just size. It’s your buying power, your raw material buying power and your line efficiency. There are a
lot of extensions. In fact, what’s interesting is some of these sub-categories or sub-extensions haven’t led to the
volume for big efficiencies. You have these plants that are designed for large commercial runs. Different
flavours, you can switch out the line pretty easily. You can do that. Typically, though, if you’re a niche player,
there is some co-packing going on in the marketplace. Not everybody self-manufactures, more for the smaller
and regional players. For those who have their own plants, they’ve got to get the line, they’ve got to get the
efficiencies out of it, so then there has to be volume. A lot of times, promotional allowances and strategies are
more for an inventory management standpoint and actually not a consumer-driven standpoint.
[00:35:50]
Q: Can you outline the D2C approach? Condiments, sauces and spices seem lightweight and easily portable,
suggesting low freight costs.
JD: Coming to the low freight costs, freight is now expensive and goes by weight. A plastic bottle weighs less
than glass but still has some weight to it. It’s not popcorn. Again, for a lot of these big players, freight is not so
much an issue per se, just because they have a larger portfolio and it’s more than just the barbecue sauces. If
you were to look at Kraft Heinz, they’re shipping a trailer to a customer and it could be mixed product, so it’s
less of an effect if you’re a larger player. Don’t get me wrong, vs your standards or vs what you used to buy last
year, freight has gone up significantly for everybody, but for the smaller players, obviously, because they’re
smaller-volume, all of these costs add up. It’s hard for them to find a competitive advantage due to size,
whereas the bigger plays have that advantage due to size.
[00:37:03]
Q: Could you briefly summarise the industry’s recent consolidation?
JD: Where organisations didn’t have the capability to build or it’s too expensive to build, they purchased or
bought an existing brand. Outside of barbecue sauces, in all things, you see that evolution. It’s just that
continuous evolution process that happens.
[00:37:45]
Q: Could you elaborate on McCormick being more of a flavour company? Where are there opportunities to
leverage synergies between flavours and expand in similar categories to condiments and sauces?
JD: I’ll speak to the industry in general. Obviously, where there’s a difficult supply chain and a company has a
strong dominant brand, and they’re able to leverage that supply chain and that brand, typically, the threats
come from less regional players but more from private label. Depending on the category, private label has
made better roads into different flavouring formats, dry, as an example, vs wet. Barbecue sauce is one,
actually, that the private label hasn’t made a foray, only because it’s a me-too and they really don’t have any
cost advantage. Barbecue sauces aren’t USD 7.99 every day, where private label could be USD 3.99. On
average, you’re talking about a USD 2 purchase. Again, Kraft, because they’re taking the volume and the
profitability, it’s just not an avenue for private label to grow, but that’s been barbecue sauces. Some of the
other formats, like hot sauces, that’s a format that private label hasn’t been able to really capture an audience
or an attention from the consumer. Some dry formats, where margins and price points can be a little bit more
attractive, that’s where the regional players can play a role, or, more or less, private labels start to get more
and more inroads and become the dominant player.
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[00:39:40]
Q: What is your 6-12-month industry outlook? How do you expect the market share split between foodservice
and retail grocery to evolve?
JD: For sauces, foodservice plays a big role, and obviously, with COVID that industry got decimated. You’ll
start to see more sales go to the foodservice channel than retail. The effect of that for manufacturers is
obviously less margin, and this is not something that is available via a lot of stock market reports. The
foodservice sector is just not as profitable for manufacturers as retail, typically, and I think you’re going to see
the volume now more shift towards foodservice, which will mean higher volumes but some margin
compression. As far as the consumer, if I had a crystal ball, I think I’d be around the circuit with the larger
speaker series crowd. We’re in unprecedented times. We haven’t been through a pandemic before, we haven’t
come out of a pandemic before. There’s obviously going to be consumer euphoria. I don’t think this is a
category that’s going to capture that. I think it’s some more higher-end items, or higher-end food items. Again,
barbecue sauce is a belly fill.
I think weather is probably a bigger factor, outside of the pandemic. If you’re going to have a hot, dry summer,
you’re going to have better barbecuing and better barbecue sales. If you have a cold, wet summer, you’re going
to have less consumption, less sales. As far as food inflation, it’s a guess to try to understand where proteins
are going to land. I think it will change people’s consumption. Flexitarian plays a role, as people go towards
veganism. It’s going to be a small effect on the category. I don’t know what inflation is going to do to the
category. It could have an effect but not as big an effect as weather. Weather is really important. If the weather
is not there, inflation or no inflation, you can sell it for USD 0.79. If it’s cold and wet, the category, it’s like ice
cream. Cold and wet doesn’t do good for ice cream, barbecue sauces or beer.
[00:42:18]
NH: John, that is a great note to conclude on. Let me close by saying thank you very much for your input.
Clients, thank you for joining Third Bridge Forum's Interview today. If anyone would like to speak with John
in a private call or meeting, please let your relationship manager know. John, thanks again.
JD: Thank you.
Transcription ends at 00:42:30 of the recorded material
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