US Frozen Aisle Industry – H1 2021 Update – 10 March
2021
Disclaimer
The information, material and content contained in this transcript (“Content”) is for information purposes only and
does not constitute advice of any type or a trade recommendation and should not form the basis of any investment
decision. This transcript has been edited by Third Bridge and may differ from the audio recording of the Interview.
Third Bridge Group Limited and its affiliates (together “Third Bridge”) make no representation and accept no liability
for the Content or for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies in respect of it. The views of the specialist expressed in the
Content are those of the specialist and they are not endorsed by, nor do they represent the opinion of, Third Bridge.
Third Bridge reserves all copyright, intellectual and other property rights in the Content. Any modification,
reformatting, copying, displaying, distributing, transmitting, publishing, licensing, creating derivative works from,
transferring or selling any Content is strictly prohibited.
Specialist:
Title:
Moderator: Nyree Hinton (NH), Third Bridge Sector Analyst
Amy Skalny (AS)
Current Director, Sales, Eastern Zone at Tyson Foods Inc
Agenda:
1. US frozen aisle retail trends
2. Domestic competitive landscape and private label growth
3. Category pricing and innovation
4. Mid-term outlook
Contents
Q: Could you summarise the size and segmentation of the US frozen foods market?
Q: Who are some of the market’s key players and what are their relevant market shares?
Q: What were a few trends and demand drivers that you noticed for the US frozen foods market’s core
categories pre-coronavirus?
Q: Could you describe some of the impacts of coronavirus on the industry?
Q: Is there any specific consumer demographic that’s driving growth in this industry given the positive
impacts of coronavirus upon it?
Q: What factors do you think consumers are considering around frozen foods’ viability, given increased
adverse weather events and potential for power outages? Are these non-factors to consumers?
Q: How great of an issue is consumer storage space for frozen foods? Consumers have demonstrated a
hoarding mentality amid the pandemic, but does it come to a point where they just can’t fit as much food as
they would like?
Q: Where does the US frozen foods industry stand regarding the shift away from processed food towards
wellness and healthier, unprocessed food?
3
4
4
5
6
6
6
7
Q: How does affordability play into strategic thinking around consumer marketing, especially in this
economic environment and given the number of firms investing heavily into this sector?
Q: Who is leading innovation in the frozen foods industry, and what form does this innovation take? You
mentioned some of the plant-based initiatives.
Q: Could you describe distribution dynamics in the US frozen foods industry across channels such as
supermarkets and convenience stores?
Q: Could you discuss the role played by the shift to e-commerce?
7
8
8
9
Q: Do you think higher marketing spend on e-commerce by manufacturers translates into higher sales, or is
there a smaller ROI vs traditional methods?
10
Q: What are some of the industry’s environmental risks? Are there any ESG trends you’re noticing?
Q: Can you describe the US frozen foods market’s competitive landscape, and elaborate on the market
leaders’ advantages and weaknesses?
Q: How strong is brand loyalty among customers? You mentioned generational evolution in which brands
consumers buy.
Q: What is your outlook on the US frozen foods industry, as well as your best- and worst-case scenario for
the next six months?
10
11
12
12
US Frozen Aisle Industry – H1 2021 Update
Transcription begins at 00:00:23 of the recorded material
NH: Welcome to Third Bridge Forum’s Interview entitled US Frozen Aisle Industry – H1 2021 Update. I am
Nyree Hinton and I will be facilitating today’s Interview with Ms Amy Skalny, current Director of Sales,
Eastern Zone at Tyson Foods Inc.
Amy, before we get started on today’s Interview, please state I agree or I disagree to the following statement:
You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any such
information or any other information which is confidential during this Interview.
AS: I agree.
NH: Could you begin with an introduction of your background and various roles you’ve held in the industry?
AS: Sure. Hi, everyone. My name is Amy Skalny. I have been in the consumer packaged good industry for
about 25 years. I started my career 15 years at Bausch + Lomb in the health and beauty side of packaged
goods, and from there I moved to Birds Eye Foods. Agrilink a small farming company, had purchased Birds
Eye Foods from Dean Foods and I went over as Marketing Director, to really build out the brand and to bring
big company process and experience into a small start-up company. I spent 10 years at Birds Eye Foods,
growing the business and growing the brand. I worked in multiple roles there, from finance to supply chain to
marketing, to trade marketing to sales, eventually, and did find my love for sales towards the end of my role at
Birds Eye.
Birds Eye was then acquired by Pinnacle Foods, out of New Jersey, and I was one of the few people to go with
the acquisition, so I went from Birds Eye to Pinnacle Foods. Spent four years at Pinnacle Foods as a Vice
President of Sales for Frozen, managing the total sales force for the frozen business unit within Pinnacle
Foods. They were a bit of a matrix organisation. Spent four years there and decided, at that point, I had done a
lot in my career and I was travelling quite a bit, and so I decided to take a leave for a couple of years. I took two
years off to open a gym and do some personal things that I wanted to do. Decided that really wasn’t for me, so
then decided to go back to Tyson Foods and took a little bit lesser job because I did want to manage my travel
somewhat, because I had travelled so much over the years, and I’ve been with Tyson as their Director of
Northeast Grocery Sales now for about five years, and that’s where I am today.
[00:03:08]
Q: Could you summarise the size and segmentation of the US frozen foods market?
AS: Sure. A majority of the information that I’ll share with you today, when we talk about categories and size,
etc, is Nielsen, based on dollar sales consumption, so it’s grocery sales consumption, and it will be across the
grocery channel, including Walmart and the big box retailers. The category today is roughly USD 66bn in
sales, and it’s up 23% from the last 52 weeks during the COVID period. Prior to COVID, it was essentially a flat
category, so it’s grown significantly in the last year. From a super category perspective, and these are the big
categories that make up the frozen shopping experience, 30% of sales come from what we consider prepared
foods. The biggest segment within prepared foods would be multi-serve and single-serve entrées, complete
meals, whether it be the single-serve dinner that you eat by yourself or the multi-serve lasagnes and prepared
meals, and then potatoes, breakfast, waffles, appetisers, sandwiches are other things that are in that 30% of
prepared categories. The second-biggest segment in the freezer case is ice cream novelties. That represents
about 20% of sales. Third is meat, raw and fully cooked, so that would be your burgers, chicken, etc, so that’s
Private and confidential 3
about 12% of the category. Seafood is right behind it at 11%, and then pizza is around 10% and from there it
goes down to vegetables, which is 6% of the category, and then everything after that is very small.
[00:05:08]
Q: Who are some of the market’s key players and what are their relevant market shares?
AS: Within the frozen food space, there are nine manufacturers who do over USD 1bn in sales, so of a USD
66bn category, there are nine manufacturers that do over USD 1bn, and they represent about 50% of the
category. They really control a big piece of the pie. There are 50 companies that do between USD 100m and
USD 1bn in sales, and then surprisingly, I was actually very surprised, I looked up all the companies, there are
2,600 companies that do less than USD 100m in sales. There are a lot of niche players out there that do very
little business but are trying to break through. Of the top nine manufacturers, Conagra is number one at USD
5.8bn in sales, so a little bit less than 10% of the category. Conagra has brands such as Marie Callender’s,
Healthy Choice, Birds Eye and their plant-based Gardein are their big frozen brands. Nestlé is the number-two
brand, manufacturer in the category. They’re at USD 5.6bn in sales, again slightly less than 10% of the
category. Their big brands are Stouffer’s, Lean Cuisine, DiGiorno Pizza.
Tyson is number three at USD 4.5bn, so down around 7% share. Obviously, the Tyson prepared chicken is the
biggest brand within that category, but then also, Tyson own Jimmy Dean, which is a very big, innovative
brand in the category, especially in the frozen breakfast space. Number-four manufacturer is Unilever. They
are USD 2.8bn in sales and obviously compete in the ice cream space. Unilever has divested most of its grocery
products over the years, but they have retained their ice cream brands, Breyers, Ben & Jerry’s, Klondike and
some smaller brands there. Number five is an international distribution company called Froneri International
Limited. Most people have not heard of them. They really specialise in the ice cream novelties business, USD
2.5bn in sales and very much focused in those novelties, ice cream cones, those kinds of things. Coming in at
number six would Kraft Heinz, USD 2bn manufacturer, and their biggest brand is Ore-Ida, in frozen potatoes,
and then behind them are Schwan’s, General Mills, Kellogg’s and Wells Enterprises. Wells Enterprises is ice
cream, Blue Bunny, Halo, they had the new innovation, Halo, the high-protein ice cream. Those are the top-10
companies that really dominate the industry.
[00:08:24]
Q: What were a few trends and demand drivers that you noticed for the US frozen foods market’s core
categories pre-coronavirus?
AS: Prior to COVID, frozen was really stagnant and not keeping pace with store growth objectives. The frozen
category was up plus or minus 1-2%, and it’s been that way now for several years, where most grocery stores
are growing 3-4%, 5%, and what’s happened is sales continue to shift to the perimeter in fresh-prepared. That
has been a trend that has been going on now for at least 10 years, where significant losses, centre-store sales
and frozen sales to fresh-prepared. Prior to COVID, there were a lot of small brands entering frozen. I just
shared that there are 2,600 manufacturers that have participated in some form or fashion in freezer case, but
these brands tend to come and go. Most of the niche positioning, we saw a lot of entries in gluten-free, in keto,
paleo, Atkins, vegan, a lot of the hot diet crazes, you’ll see these small brands come in but what happens with
the small brands as they come in, it is really difficult for them to create brand presence, and if you think about
the freezer doors, you’re behind glass. The glass doors are typically foggy, condensation, etc, and you’ve got
these brands that come in with three or four products on the shelf, and they’re just lost.
One of my big pushes to innovation teams within Tyson in my past careers was if you’re going to launch a
product in frozen, you have to have scale. You have to have brand presence. You have to have a brand block
because the frozen aisle is not shopped for a long period of time. A consumer does not spend a lot of time
looking at that door, so they have to be able to find that product. What’s happened is, all these little brands
have come in, they get distribution, they pay a lot of money to get distribution, but then people don’t find
Private and confidential 4
them, they don’t see them. The big brands tend to push them out and they’re not there 6-9 months after
launch. Some of the other trends that we’ve seen prior to COVID, there has been a lot of ethnic explosion in
frozen, with flavours, Asian, Indian, Thai. You would see those sections have expanded significantly from a
space perspective in that prepared meal section, and then the other thing that we saw prior to COVID is a lot of
the large manufacturers that I discussed up above are entering with smaller brands. Not necessarily associated
with the parent company, so a Conagra, a Nestlé is creating smaller brands and really disassociating the parent
company to try to drive authenticity and a better-for-you, healthier-for-you vs what is deemed as a highly
processed category. A Conagra and a Nestlé are viewed as having highly processed foods.
Then the other thing that we saw, and it’s still going very, very strong during COVID, is plant-based
innovation. That was another trend taking up significant space and getting new distribution. Plant-based
innovation that we see out there, obviously, Beyond Meat. Amy’s brand continues to expand in that space.
Sweet Earth is a Nestlé brand that they launched into that space. Gardein is the Conagra brand that they
launched into that space. Tyson has launched Raised & Rooted. We’re trying to get that on the shelf right now,
so a lot of work. Products have gotten significantly better in plant-based. They’ve moved out of soy, they’ve
moved into pea proteins and they’re getting a lot of traction, and that category continues to evolve. I don’t
have an overall plant-based number for you because the way Nielsen and external reporting of categories,
within each category, the plant-based items are lumped under that category, so if there are plant-based single-
serve entrées, they would be in the single-serve entrée category, etc. If they’re within pizza, the pizza crust, it’s
still within the pizza category, so right now it’s really hard to get after how big that number is without polling
individual products.
[00:13:15]
Q: Could you describe some of the impacts of coronavirus on the industry?
AS: I can’t understate how massive COVID has had [sic] on the frozen foods industry. We have had a massive
increase in demand. I talked about category trends that were 0-2% for the last 10 years. The frozen category is
up 23% in the last 52 weeks, and that number is absolutely constrained by manufacturers’ ability to supply.
For those of you who are familiar with the food industry, you know it’s a penny profit industry and for
manufacturers to be profitable, they need to have their plants full. There’s just not a whole lot of idle capacity
in the industry, so when this surge in demand happened, the companies that won and that were able to deliver
over the 20% growth in the category were the ones that were able to flex their capacity into supply. My
opinion, the category would be up 50-60% had the industry had more capacity and been able to supply more
products. During the COVID period, the centre-of-the-plate categories, such as the Tyson chicken, burgers,
meats, seafoods, those all grew significantly more than the single-serve entrées and some of those categories.
There was clearly a demand for centre-of-the-plate meat, and I think it correlates back to early on in COVID.
If you walked the meat case, there were a lot of out-of-stocks and people have been educated on the benefit of
being able to pantry load and stock up on frozen products during this COVID crisis. I think they do see the
benefit, and I think that’s going to be one of the big questions coming out of COVID, is household penetration
of frozen foods has increased significantly during COVID. How much of that will retain and how much of that
shopping will go back to fresh-prepared purchasing? That’s still to be seen. I don’t think we know that answer
today. That’s what’s gone on during COVID. I can take you through very quickly some of the categories.
Prepared foods was a 1% category growth prior to COVID, and that’s up 20% post-COVID. Let’s see here. Ice
cream desserts was 2% prior to COVID, up 19%. Seafood was 5% prior to COVID, up 40%. Pizza was 3%, up
25%. Fully cooked meats, 5%, up 132%. It just goes to show you some of the overall trends, pre- and post-
COVID. There was only one category, it’s almost interesting if I think about it for a minute, that was down
during COVID, and that was ice, actually. If you think about it, people were not partying and getting together,
so that door of ice was down significantly during COVID.
Private and confidential 5
[00:16:54]
Q: Is there any specific consumer demographic that’s driving growth in this industry given the positive
impacts of coronavirus upon it?
AS: Frozen remains highly indexed to families and baby boomers. Baby boomers came up with frozen foods
back in the day and families understand the convenience and flexibility that frozen food has to offer.
Millennials and the younger generations are still very hesitant to buy frozen, and we have not seen a major
shift. Data is still very young coming out of COVID here. Household penetration data lags somewhat, to see
how much penetration increased in some of those younger demographic markets, but millennials have been
very vocal that they prefer and are willing to pay for fresh-prepared food. That they deem frozen unhealthy,
not up to date, it doesn’t offer the flavour varieties that they’re looking for and they have been very, very hard
to attract. We’ll talk a little bit more going forward on innovation. Much of the innovation we’ve seen in the
last few years in the frozen category has really been targeting those millennials, but it really has been slow on
the uptake. They really have put their heels in, and they go into the grocery store three, four, five times a week
and they want to pick up what they want to eat for that meal, and they’re not cooking, they’re not prepping
foods and they’re just eating on the go.
[00:18:42]
Q: What factors do you think consumers are considering around frozen foods’ viability, given increased
adverse weather events and potential for power outages? Are these non-factors to consumers?
AS: I don’t have any specific data on weather patterns, but while weather patterns can be very disruptive to
our manufacturing supply chain and our distribution supply chain, I personally have not seen any meaningful
shift in consumer shopping behaviours as a result of weather. I would say no, there hasn’t been anything
significant. The significant event that has occurred is this hoarding, pantry-loading mentality of people having
fear of running out of food during this pandemic and wanting to stock up. Then as far as the viability of frozen
foods, shopping the frozen food aisle is still the largest barrier to entry. It is viewed as very cold and hard to
shop, and actually only 10% of shoppers that are going into the grocery store will walk down that freezer aisle.
That’s really the biggest challenge that the industry is trying to overcome, is to get more consumers to walk
down that freezer aisle. It’s very, very low penetration in the store.
[00:20:23]
Q: How great of an issue is consumer storage space for frozen foods? Consumers have demonstrated a
hoarding mentality amid the pandemic, but does it come to a point where they just can’t fit as much food as
they would like?
AS: I actually don’t have specific data on it, but I do remember early on in the beginning of the pandemic,
there was a major backlog on consumer freezers, so if you went to Home Depot or Lowe’s or tried to buy an
extra freezer for your garage or basement, they’d been sold out. Obviously, frozen food space is limited to the
frozen food storage that you have in your home. We know that frozen food storage has increased during this
pandemic, with people adding freezers. Again, it’s one of those things. Are we going to see freezers on eBay
and Facebook Marketplace six months from now, or is this something that’s going to stay and be part of their
everyday shopping experience? I would say, in completely my estimate, that frozen food storage space within
the house will increase 25% coming out of COVID.
Private and confidential 6
[00:21:52]
Q: Where does the US frozen foods industry stand regarding the shift away from processed food towards
wellness and healthier, unprocessed food?
AS: Perception of healthfulness is one of the major barriers to entry in frozen food and one of the things that
keeps millennials away. It’s a big focus of baby boomers as they try to eat better and deal with health
conditions. I would say the families, while Mum does like to put healthy food on the plate for her children, she
still is going to buy what her children want to eat. As far as health and wellness goes, it is definitely a big focus
of all manufacturers. The big manufacturers over the last several years have gone through major rebranding
efforts to try to improve the healthfulness of their brands. For example, Lean Cuisine rebranded their line of
products as Life Cuisine. Healthy Choice has pulled back on the Healthy Choice name and they’ve launched
items such as Power Bowls and things like that that try to go to health and wellness and nutrition and protein
vs the old Healthy Choice, which was just considered a highly processed diet food. Stouffer’s rebranded some
of their entrées as Fit Kitchen. Again, a lot of the big manufacturers are putting a lot of money into branding
and trying to find ways to connect with the consumer. Like I said, these big companies also are launching
those new brands in that plant-based area to try to go after health and wellness as well.
With respect to frozen in health and wellness, the two biggest issues are the foods are viewed as highly
processed, and they are. When you look at an ingredient statement of a frozen product vs something that’s in
the fresh-prepared case, typically, the ingredient list is 3-5 times longer and has a lot of words on it that you
don’t typically know. Then sodium is the other area that is very, very difficult to get out of in the freezer case. I
worked as the innovation lead at Birds Eye for a year, and we worked very hard on sodium on a number of
meal products, and they just don’t taste good. That’s why you’ve seen a lot of advances in ethnic flavours and
trying to bring flavour to the freezer case without sodium, but there’s something about the freezing process. As
healthful as the freezing process is, and safe and effective, it just takes flavour out of the product, for some
reason. Whether it’s the increased water content and that need for sodium is just there to deliver on the taste
experience. That is a very, very real challenge that many, many R&D groups are working to overcome, is how
to provide flavour and reduce the number of ingredients on the ingredient panel, and that’s what’s necessary.
Those are the two things that are absolutely necessary to work on that health and wellness perception of the
frozen food case.
[00:25:19]
Q: How does affordability play into strategic thinking around consumer marketing, especially in this economic
environment and given the number of firms investing heavily into this sector?
AS: If you actually do the economics and look at it, frozen is very economical for the consumer. It has much
less waste. You’re not throwing things away. You buy lettuce, you buy broccoli, you buy meat in your
refrigerator or fresh, about 30% of that is often thrown away every week or every two weeks, where if you have
frozen product, your shelf life is significantly longer, anywhere from nine months to a year and a half, so
significantly more value. You’re paying the same price or even a little less for frozen product. You have less
waste and you can keep it much longer. That being said, the National Frozen Foods Association [sic] and a
number of companies have tried to band together over the years, and this is going back 10 years when I was at
Birds Eye. I actually worked on some of this campaign and some of this research trying to drive this awareness
that frozen is better in many, many ways. The campaigns failed miserably. The learning was, is that fresh will
always be the gold standard. People understand there’s waste with fresh, and that any type of comparison to
fresh is taboo. It’s, “Don’t go there. Don’t tell us that.”
I do think people that buy frozen understand the value, but the ability to advertise that and talk about that is
very difficult. Another barrier that has been very, very real in the freezer case when it comes to price and value
is USD 10 is the magic price point in that freezer case. If you have a product that sells over USD 10, it has got
to be absolutely exceptional. For some reason, consumers are not willing to pay over USD 10, unless we’re
talking something, you buy chicken nuggets for your kids and you buy that value pack, big, big bag or
something. There are products that are successful over USD 10, but for the most part, when you innovate and
Private and confidential 7
you create a healthier product and you put more natural ingredients in and it drives that price point up, the
consumer has not been willing to pay historically. I can’t say that’ll be true going forward but it has been a very
significant barrier to entry that the consumer is looking for value in the freezer and that value has to be under
USD 10.
[00:28:06]
Q: Who is leading innovation in the frozen foods industry, and what form does this innovation take? You
mentioned some of the plant-based initiatives.
AS: In the last couple of years, there’s always been a lot of innovation. There hasn’t been any breakthrough
innovation. I’ll talk at the end a little bit more about what the industry needs, and the industry needs
breakthrough innovation. The biggest innovation over the last couple of years has been in cauliflower
products. Cauliflower pizza crust, cauliflower rice, those zucchini noodles, so all going into that low-carb, keto,
paleo diet which is very, very popular. What frozen was able to do, and they’ve been very successful, is make
that cauliflower eating experience easier. I don’t know if any of you have bought a fresh head of cauliflower
and tried to make a pizza crust. It is not an easy thing, so the consumer has been willing to pay for this, and
we’ve seen a lot of success in a lot of brands across many manufacturers entering that cauliflower space. That’s
probably one of the biggest innovation items, categories over the last couple of years, and then we have talked
about meatless meals and items. That has been just gangbusters on innovation. It’s still, in my mind, very
niche-y. I don’t think it’s completely taken on, and I’ve got a couple of numbers here. Let me find those. Seven
out of 10, and this is industry research, meat-eating consumers are willing to add a plant-based alternative to
their diet. There has been all kinds of advertising, Beyond Meat, Impossible Burger, etc, consumers are telling
us that seven in 10 of them are willing to try one or add one to their diet on a regular basis, meatless Mondays,
etc, but, currently, today, only 20% are buying products.
There’s a lot of innovation coming out. Some of it’s pretty good, some of it’s “eh”, but I do expect that area to
be a major focus. Every major manufacturer is working in meatless right now. There is a big race to win that
category and to be the brand leader in that category. Another one category that has had some breakthrough
innovation is the Halo brand in ice cream, if you’re familiar with that. They launched a healthier, protein-
based ice cream, and you couldn’t keep that product on the shelf. Again, it hit that diet niche consumer that is
trying to be healthier, lower fat, lower sugar, higher protein and that brand just did gangbusters. Then at
Tyson, Jimmy Dean continues to be a big innovator in frozen protein breakfast. Frozen protein breakfast has
been a category that has just exploded over the last 10 years. People want more protein in their diet, they want
hand-held convenience and Jimmy Dean and Tyson have done very, very good. We’ve probably launched 40
innovation items over the last 10 years in that category, and that continues to be a big priority of Tyson Foods.
[00:31:35]
Q: Could you describe distribution dynamics in the US frozen foods industry across channels such as
supermarkets and convenience stores?
AS: Big box continues to dominate, and going into COVID, big box, I mean the big W, really dominates
grocery and had been growing their share of both frozen and total grocery over the five or 10 years going into
COVID. They have extensive freezer displays. They have best-in-class planograms in how their freezers are set.
They have the most sophisticated modelling and data and store demographics, that they set their stores
properly and optimise their sets to reach the consumers that are shopping their stores, and they’ve done very,
very well. They’ve leveraged their power and their size to get manufacturers to do the work for them, and they
have clearly won. They’ve been willing to take risks. They’ve tried some things that are very different from
what others have done, but then COVID hit and things changed. The consumer was hesitant to go into that
big-box store, they felt more comfortable shopping their smaller grocery channel, and there’s been a fairly
significant market shift swing back to traditional grocery within frozen and total store sales during COVID.
Will that remain? Again, that’s something we’re all waiting to see what will happen in that, but the big-box
Private and confidential 8
store is picking up a little bit now that things are slowing down with the COVID pandemic a bit, but there was
a pretty significant share shift that occurred. There’s a safety consideration obviously that we’ll have to keep in
mind and understand as we move forward.
Traditional grocers prior to COVID had been declining significantly in frozen, their share within the
marketplace, and they were losing to Aldi and Lidl, two German, European manufacturers that have come into
the United States. Aldi and Lidl are a small-format value store. Most of their products are done in a private
label format and they have been really, really hurting the traditional grocers because they’ve come in with very
high-quality products, not brand name, but extensive frozen offering at an exceptional value to what you
would typically find in the grocery space. If you were to talk to any major traditional grocery retailer and ask
them who their number-one competition five years ago, they would probably have said Walmart. Today, I
think they would say either Aldi or Lidl, depending on who’s in their marketplace.
Then there are dollar stores. We know there are a tremendous amount of dollar stores out there. They have
been adding freezers over the years, and many manufacturers are working to create unique offerings for that
dollar store. What we found is that dollar store, you can’t ship them the standard product that you would put
on a traditional retailer. They’re looking for a little better value. They were willing to take out some quality, so
the manufacturers that have been successful penetrating the dollar store channel have customised product
lines for that channel. I would say they are slightly inferior in quality or maybe smaller in size, so they can
offer a price for value offering so that it is a better value to the consumer. It’s a very fine line because if you’re
selling to grocery and they see the same product in dollar store at a cheaper price, that creates great
consternation and difficulty for the manufacturer sales team. I can’t really speak to convenience. I know there
are some frozen doors in convenience. I feel like, just from experience and running into convenience stores,
it’s still very convenient-orientated food. It might have some single-serve entrées, some frozen sandwiches, ice
cream for sure, novelties, etc, but that channel is actually managed, from Tyson’s standpoint, from our food
service organisation and not really a focus of ours.
[00:36:29]
Q: Could you discuss the role played by the shift to e-commerce?
AS: When I talk about e-commerce with respect to frozen, I’m talking about click and collect. The consumer
sitting at home on their phone or on their computer, they’re going to either their Walmart or their traditional
retailer, they’re ordering online and either setting it up for pick-up or for delivery. There really is no
economical, viable, frozen shipping grocery organisation today. Obviously, it has to be packed in dry ice if you
were to ship more than an hour radius or two-hour radius around any grocery, so when the frozen companies
talk about e-commerce, they’re talking about click and collect. COVID has created an e-commerce boom. Half
of the online shoppers started within the past six months, with COVID being that leading driver. I don’t have
the name of the person that said this, but they were talking, where I was listening to a presentation on e-
commerce and what they said was that what should have taken five years to develop this click-and-collect
shopping pattern took five weeks. That’s how much COVID escalated the number of consumers that have
moved from going into the store to click and collect. Today, 7% of edible grocery sales are now done through
click and collect and that is projected to grow 14% a year through 2025.
Then with respect to the products that are purchased on click and collect, frozen does very, very well, and if
you think about it, it is fairly intuitive. Snacking is the number-one thing, just centre-of-store snacking is the
most often items purchased online, and then centre-of-the-store regular products are second and then frozen
is third. Then fresh-prepared meats, perishables, etc, are last, at the bottom of the list, but frozen does very
well because, again, there is a quick turnaround time between the deliveries, with the Instacarts or you have
your date and time for pick-up and the products are kept in the refrigerator section, frozen section, people feel
good about that. It’s doing very, very well and expected to grow immensely. I know from Tyson’s perspective,
we are actively working with all our manufacturers to make sure our products are front and centre on their e-
commerce sites and there’s going to be a lot of money spent by manufacturers to pay for that. Just like 15 years
ago you paid for your name to be at the top of the Google Ads search. Now we’re paying for, if you put in hot
dogs, that Tyson Ball Park hot dogs come first on the list, and there’s a cost to have that happen. It’s going to
Private and confidential 9
be a nice little profit centre for our grocers as we move into the next 10 years.
[00:39:58]
Q: Do you think higher marketing spend on e-commerce by manufacturers translates into higher sales, or is
there a smaller ROI vs traditional methods?
AS: We are just starting to dabble in it, and I don’t know that we have definitive ROI data on that right now. I
would say, from what I know of the retailers that I’m responsible for, it’s a cost of doing business right now. If
you’re on that second page, you’re not getting purchased, so my guess is this is going to have a pretty good
ROI. As long as we’re not just trading out, one week we’re on, one week we’re off, and it’ll be interesting to see
how it plays out. Retailers are just learning too. They’re asking us for help. They’re asking us, “How should we
do this? How should we set it up?” They’ve had major shifts in resources within their grocery stores,
headquarters, on what we used to call shopper marketing, where you’d put the tags up in the store, the floor
graphics. Those people are now all working on e-commerce and, again, what should have taken five years took
five weeks.
The retailers had to respond to that as well. They weren’t ready. Some retailers didn’t even have Instacart
relationships going into COVID. You want to talk about an industry scrambling, the retailers are probably
scrambling more than the manufacturers are in this part right now. They’re trying to differentiate. They’re
trying to make their consumer experience better. They’re trying to offer value. They’re trying to drive basket
size ring. I think we’re just scratching the surface in what can be done with online marketing and advertising.
To me, it seems like it would be a highly efficient, highly positive ROI. There’s no printing. There’s no
distribution. You don’t have to get things out into the stores. I would think it would be a very, very cost-
effective way to promote, and to advertise and to support the brand.
[00:42:29]
Q: What are some of the industry’s environmental risks? Are there any ESG trends you’re noticing?
AS: We’ve done a couple sustainability, we share the Tyson sustainability reports, etc, but the number-one
question I get asked is what is Tyson doing on sustainable packaging and what are others doing on sustainable
packaging? There is so much plastic in that freezer case, and there are cardboard, biodegradable options that
are viable, that you can microwave. There is viable packaging out there, but it is significantly more expensive,
and it’s that fine line of value with the consumer. If there’s an area that companies could make a material
difference and create a point of differentiation, the first person that comes with a biodegradable
environmental package that is not more than a penny or two more expensive than the current is someone that
is going to really be able to market a differentiated offering out there. I haven’t seen it yet. It’s very hard. We
have people working on it. I’m sure all of the main guys, big guys have people working on it, but I have not
seen anything break through in the pipeline as of yet. That would be the number-one thing.
The second thing in packaging is always can you eliminate the box? You’ve got the bag or you’ve got the tray
inside the box. Can you get rid of the outside carton? There’s a big request for that. The problem with that
becomes the box is your marketing and your branding in that freezer glass door, so it’s incredibly important to
have that brand block and that shelf of red or blue or green or whoever you are. When you start to take that
box away, your branding and your brand awareness goes down significantly. I work on Jimmy Dean, and most
of the Jimmy Dean products are in a box today, and we’ve been moving to bag, putting it in a bag, again, to
eliminate that overwrap and that extra packaging, but the branding effect of that, when you look at the shelf,
it’s not as neat, and it’s not as impactful as it is when it’s in a box. Those are the packaging things that are
going on right now, and then the other big thing with sustainability in the freezer case and across the store is
in plant-based meat substitutes. For the whole greenhouse gases and sustainable farming, that’s obviously a
huge growth area, and there are people that are going to buy those products because of those very reasons.
That continues to be marketed and developed, and I do believe that will be a very big trend that will continue
Private and confidential 10
on into the future, especially as product quality improves.
[00:46:06]
Q: Can you describe the US frozen foods market’s competitive landscape, and elaborate on the market leaders’
advantages and weaknesses?
AS: The competitive landscape, when I think about frozen within the industry, prior to COVID, frozen was
losing market share to fresh-prepared and deli. There’s been so much innovation in that fresh-prepared,
convenient meals to go, that millennial generation, and the freezer case was declining more into 3%, flat in
some categories but fresh-prepared was growing immensely. Within the grocery channel, in the grocery store,
that fresh-prepared margin is probably twice. The grocers are making probably twice in a margin percentage
what they’re making in the freezer case. It’s highly profitable and they’re very invested in moving consumers
out of the freezer case, out of centre-store, into their fresh-prepared. You’ll see, there’s tremendous amount of
work going on on grocers, on how they should lay out their stores and how should you control traffic flow to
make sure the consumer is walking by all the fresh-prepared? Frozen is often an afterthought. It’s the last
thing, and what I said earlier, with only 10% of shoppers actually walk down a freezer aisle when they go in for
a shopping occasion. That trend, I don’t see that trend going away post-COVID.
I would expect fresh-prepared and delis to open back up. It has been scaled back significantly because of food
safety issues. Delis have been closed, hot bars have been scaled back but I do think we’ll see that start to
change as we come out of COVID. On the other side of that, frozen foods has increased household penetration
during COVID and the big unknown is how much of that will stick? Will consumers realise, and this is
probably one of the best marketing campaigns the frozen industry could ask for was this COVID pandemic, is
how much of this household penetration will stick. Will consumers understand that the quality has improved
significantly from 10 or 15 years ago? It’s not my mom’s frozen food any more, it’s on-trend, it’s relevant, it’s
high-quality and it’s better for you, and will that stick? Will they see the value and the flexibility that it offers?
Those are some of the things, the store competing within the store for that consumer.
As far as competitive advantages manufacturing has, and this is solely my opinion, and from working at three
companies and seeing three very different things, and I did work in innovation for a number of years and
worked with a number of co-packers. To me, the biggest competitive advantage a manufacturer can have is
manufacturing capability, flexibility and ability to expand. The industry is dated. It’s not only dated, it’s
outdated and the manufacturing plants for the most part are old. Any manufacturer that is dependent on a co-
packer is at a significant disadvantage because not only are they dependent on that co-packer manufacturing
the product for them and delivering the quality they’re looking for but there’s a cost premium in doing that.
While you’re trying to compete with the big guys who are vertically integrated, bringing in co-packers is very
difficult. That being said, if you want to launch an innovation product, the cost of capital is long, and it is
expensive to put USDA [US Department of Agriculture]-certified plants in place and lines in place. That is not
an inexpensive thing to do, so the cost of entry in manufacturing is very high. To me, the companies that will
be successful in what is so critically important to understand when you’re looking at brands and companies is
what is the true footprint of their manufacturing? What does their capacity look like? What do their lines look
like? Is their equipment old? Is it flexible? Can it be expanded? Can it be utilised for other purposes? Do they
have flexibility to bring innovation in?
I worked in innovation for a number of years and we’d come up with these great ideas. Can’t make it, can’t
make it. We don’t have that capability. Can’t find a co-packer. I do think manufacturing flexibility is one of the
biggest challenges with innovation, so that would be a huge call-out and I don’t think people take enough time
when they do look at brands and companies and acquisitions and things like that, at the actual manufacturing.
They look a lot at the sales and the brand, etc, but manufacturing is critical and a huge competitive advantage.
Just like during COVID, the companies that were able to flex manufacturing… And so something like Tyson
did during COVID, and I can share this because it is public information, is we converted a number of our K
through 12 food service chicken nugget lines to retail. We put baggers on them very quickly, and Tyson had the
scale and the capital to be able to do that, and so we converted almost an entire school plant into a retail
operation within 60 days. That’s just unheard of, the ability to do that, and it was a huge advantage for us at
Private and confidential 11
retail. We gained significant market share because we could provide more product and utilise some of that
food service space that was underutilised at the time. That’s an example of things that will really benefit and
create that competitive advantage.
[00:52:05]
Q: How strong is brand loyalty among customers? You mentioned generational evolution in which brands
consumers buy.
AS: I think brand loyalty, if you have a product that you really enjoy, is pretty strong, especially if it’s a unique,
differentiated product, and that’s what innovators are constantly fighting to do. They’re constantly fighting to
come up with something that is differentiated and not a me-too product. Where there is less loyalty is in what
we consider commodity products, so is the consumer really loyal between a Birds Eye green bean, a Green
Giant green bean and a Great Value Walmart green bean? They’re all grade A, so are they willing to trade off
for USD 0.10 in savings? Most likely, they are, and so if there’s an ad for the week or whatever, the consumer
will typically buy the lower price in the commodity offerings. Retailers are getting smart and there have been
significant changes over the last 10 years, where 10 years ago, you would have found eight different varieties
and manufacturers of green beans on the shelf. Now you’re most likely going to find one. They’re going to put
the leading brand and their private label, and then take the rest of the space that would have been consumed
by those eight different brands of green beans, now instead they’re going to have a bag of cauliflower rice and a
bag of zucchini noodles and a value-added green bean and almonds. They’re not going to have duplicate
entries, so I think when you’re looking at products, me-too is no longer viable. If you go to a retailer and
present a me-too product with something they have, chances are it’s going to be rejected because it doesn’t
deliver an incrementality and it doesn’t make sense to take out something to put something on the shelf that
they already carry.
[00:54:37]
Q: What is your outlook on the US frozen foods industry, as well as your best- and worst-case scenario for the
next six months?
AS: Entirely my opinion, we don’t have data, we are just going into the period now where we’re starting to lap
the massive COVID stock-up, but over the next six months for sure, I would expect to see at least 20% growth
continuing as manufacturers are catching up on their supply chain. The shopping trends have not stopped, so
week to week to week, sales are not going down right now. Our growth rates over prior year are going to
diminish, but I do believe, at least for the next six months, that the shopping trends will continue and that we
will not see very much setback from that USD 66bn category that we opened up with. We are still, I’m
speaking for Tyson but I’m also connected to a lot of other friends in the industry, on allocation. We are in
catch-up mode. Our warehouses and distribution centres are empty. We’ve essentially become cross-dock
manufacturers where we make it and we ship it. We’re doing a lot of direct plant shipments. We’re not even
putting product in forward warehouses, and that’s true for many people.
If you were to look at the grocery shelf today, you might see five facings of one SKU, one flavour, one variety,
where typically there would only be one facing, but that was all that the grocer could secure that week because
we’re not producing all of our SKUs right now. Tyson, again I can speak for Tyson, we’re not producing all of
our items today, yet. We have not caught up, so for example in frozen prepared chicken, we may have 100
items that we offer to the grocer. We’re producing our top 20 and that’s what you’re finding on the shelf right
now, just for a pure efficiency standpoint. Like I said, demand has not slowed. I still think there’s upward
potential here, even as we lack this, and it’s going to take us quite a while to catch up. I’m very optimistic about
the category. I’m optimistic that the household penetration will increase from pre-COVID levels. I don’t think
it will maintain where it is today, but I do think this has been a wonderful marketing campaign for the frozen
industry that will create awareness and opportunity.
Private and confidential 12
[00:57:37]
NH: At this point, we will now end the Interview. Let me close by saying thank you, Amy, so much. Really
great information and good colour on the industry as a whole. Clients, if you would like to speak to Amy in a
private call or meeting please let your relationship manager know. Thank you, clients, for joining Third Bridge
Forum’s Interview today. Goodbye.
Transcription ends at 00:57:50 of the recorded material
Private and confidential 13